Extreme weather is taking a toll on coffee producers, driving prices through the roof. Over the past year, coffee prices have more than doubled, soaring by an incredible 103%.
In 2024, excessive rainfall and high temperatures in key coffee-growing areas created major challenges for farmers. This trend of unpredictable weather seems to be ongoing, as scientists announced that 2024 was the hottest year recorded, with early 2025 showing no signs of cooling off.
Supply chain experts at the consultancy firm Inverto predict that food prices will remain unstable this year as extreme weather continues to disrupt crops.
The impact of these events is particularly damaging for small-scale coffee farmers in countries like Brazil, Ethiopia, and Vietnam. These farmers, who contribute little to climate change, now find themselves at the forefront of an escalating crisis.
“Small-scale coffee farmers are living on the front lines of the climate crisis,” says Patrick Watt, chief executive of Christian Aid. He emphasizes that this group suffers heavily from the escalating weather issues despite their minor contributions to global warming.
Climate change is hitting coffee production hard. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and diseases like coffee leaf rust threaten farmlands.
Mackson Ng’ambi, CEO of the Mzuzu Coffee Cooperative in Malawi, shared how poor early rains have led to disappointing coffee flowering. “This has become a frequent issue,” he notes.
The ripple effects of extreme weather touch not only coffee but also other crops. For instance, soaring heat in East Asia last year led to increases in rice prices in Japan and vegetable prices in China. Developing countries, where farmers receive little compensation, feel these changes most acutely.
Research shows that if current trends continue, we may see a staggering 54.5% reduction in suitable land for coffee production, even if global temperature rise sticks to the Paris Agreement targets. Brazil and Vietnam, which supply over half of the coffee consumed in the UK, are particularly vulnerable to these changes.
Ironically, coffee production also contributes to climate problems. Growing just one kilogram of coffee can generate greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to 15.33 kilograms of carbon dioxide, according to University College London researchers.
Adapting farming methods and sourcing strategies can help reduce this environmental footprint. Katharina Erfort, a principal at Inverto, emphasizes that food manufacturers should diversify their supply chains to reduce reliance on areas vulnerable to crop failures.
The rising coffee prices may soon impact consumers directly. As Mackson points out, if farmers need to invest more to maintain their coffee fields, this increase should reflect in retail prices. Without this recognition, many growers may abandon coffee farming altogether.
The UK alone consumes about 98 million cups of coffee daily, supporting over 210,000 jobs in the industry. However, if current trends continue, the coffee lovers may face higher prices and diminished availability.
To support coffee farmers, Christian Aid urges the UK Government to enhance climate finance and alleviate unjust historical debts faced by developing nations. Patrick highlights the need for wealthy countries to follow through on commitments that will assist farmers in growing resilient crops and finding alternative income sources.
A recent poll found that nearly 70% of UK adults feel the government should take stronger actions to mitigate the climate crisis’s effects on the food supply chain. The UK’s National Preparedness Commission has warned that the country is unprepared for the risks facing its food system, including extreme weather.
Direct funding is essential for small-scale farmers. “Low-interest financing opportunities are currently lacking, which could help farmers adapt,” Mackson explains. Without action, the future of coffee production is uncertain.
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coffee,United Kingdom,global warming,Vietnam,Farmers,Food security
