The chance of a large asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 has just gone up to 1 in 32, or about 3.1%, according to NASA.
NASA announced on February 7 that the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth increased from 1.2% to 2.3%. The odds continued to rise to 2.6% and now stand at 3.1%. You can find the latest updates on NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies website.
This asteroid is around 177 feet wide—that’s about the same height as the Leaning Tower of Pisa. While it’s not large enough to cause an extinction-level event, it could still devastate a major city. If it strikes, it would unleash around 8 megatons of energy, which is more than 500 times the force of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
The bright side is that there’s still a 96.9% chance YR4 will miss Earth completely. As scientists gather more information about its path, the likelihood of a collision could drop to zero. There’s even a tiny 0.3% chance it might hit the moon instead.
Asteroids and comets near Earth are assessed using the Torino Scale. Currently, YR4 has a rating of 3 out of 10, indicating it poses a risk for localized damage. This means it has a more than 1% chance of hitting Earth.
Scientists believe that as more observations come in, they can better determine the asteroid’s orbit, which often leads to a decreased impact probability. Many previously flagged asteroids have ended up with a 0% impact chance as additional data surfaced.
Recently, a team of scientists received emergency access to the James Webb Space Telescope. They plan to examine YR4 closely to understand its size and assess the risk it poses.
Currently, YR4 is the only large asteroid with over a 1% chance of impacting Earth. If it were to collide, the most likely area would be a “risk corridor” that includes parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and parts of South Asia, according to NASA.
