Germany’s Critical Vote This Sunday: How the New Government Will Influence Europe’s Stance on Trump’s Assertive Policies

On Sunday, German voters will head to the polls to elect a new parliament, which will shape the country’s future for the next four years.

Germany, the largest economy in Europe and a key member of NATO, plays a significant role in global affairs, especially as a major supplier of weapons to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion in 2022. The upcoming government will be crucial in dealing with an assertive U.S. administration and ongoing European challenges.

Election Day Details

Voting will start at 8 a.m. and finish at 6 p.m. Residents can also vote by mail, but their ballots must arrive by the close of polls to be counted. After polls close, exit polls will be released, and vote counting will begin immediately. We should have a good idea of the results soon after voting ends, with official results expected early Monday morning.

Meet the Candidates

Four main figures are in the race for chancellor:

• Olaf Scholz, the current Chancellor and a member of the Social Democrats
• Friedrich Merz from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
• Robert Habeck, Vice Chancellor and member of the Green Party
• Alice Weidel from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)

Opinion polls show Merz’s CDU leading with about 30%, followed by the AfD at around 20%. Scholz’s Social Democrats and Habeck’s Greens are trailing. Although Merz is favored to win, the process of forming a government may depend on the number of parties gaining seats.

What’s at Stake?

Over 59 million people are eligible to vote for the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, which consists of 630 members. A total of 29 parties are on the ballot, although only five to eight are likely to secure seats. To do so, they need at least 5% of the vote.

The new government will face significant challenges, including addressing economic issues, as Scholz’s coalition fell apart last November amid disputes over how to revive a struggling economy. Reducing irregular migration has also been a focus in this election.

Merz hopes to establish a new government by mid-April if he wins, while Scholz’s current administration will remain in a caretaker role until a new chancellor is elected.