Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Collision Risk with Earth Plummets to Near Zero: What You Need to Know

Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was recently labeled the riskiest asteroid, now has nearly zero chance of hitting Earth in 2032. According to NASA and the European Space Agency, the risk is now estimated at just 0.0017%. That means only about a 1 in 59,000 chance of impact, leaving a 99.9983% likelihood that it will safely pass by Earth in seven years.

When first discovered, 2024 YR4 appeared to have a notable chance of colliding with our planet. But as astronomers continued to gather data, they could refine the asteroid’s trajectory model, which showed no significant risk of an impact for at least the next century. The asteroid’s projected path has now shifted even further away from Earth.

Over the weekend, 2024 YR4’s risk level dropped to 0 on the Torino Scale, which indicates that the likelihood of a collision is effectively zero. This scale helps categorize potential threats from space objects and suggests that even small meteors burning up in the atmosphere are of no concern.

Discovered on December 27, 2024, this asteroid is estimated to be between 131 and 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, similar in size to a large building. If it were to hit, it could cause serious local damage.

The significant reduction in risk is thanks to the dedicated work of astronomers around the world. Richard Binzel, a professor at MIT, praised their ongoing observations that helped paint a clearer picture of the asteroid’s orbit.

Binzel expressed relief at the quick decrease in risk, stating that it would have been frustrating to remain in a state of uncertainty. Astronomers prefer to have clear data rather than prolonged uncertainty about threats.

Earlier last week, Asteroid 2024 YR4 briefly held a record for the highest perceived threat level since the asteroid Apophis, which was first detected in 2004. At its peak, 2024 YR4 reached a threat level of 3 on the Torino Scale with a projected 3.1% chance of impact. This was based on different methods of measuring its orbit by NASA and ESA, both of which contributed to its threat ranking.

As with Apophis, astronomers expected the initial risk of 2024 YR4 to rise and later decrease as more observations were made. Apophis, measuring 1,148 feet (350 meters) across, was once considered highly hazardous but has since dropped to a zero threat level after more precise orbital calculations were made.

Astronomers face challenges when assessing the risks posed by new asteroids. Uncertainties around their size and orbital paths make predictions difficult. Observations using powerful telescopes have helped clarify the status of 2024 YR4, especially after a full moon in February limited visibility.

Telescopes like the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope and the Gemini South Observatory played crucial roles in tracking the asteroid. The stable atmosphere above Maunakea facilitated some of the best images of the asteroid.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 will soon move out of reach of ground telescopes until 2028, but astronomers remain committed to monitoring its path. The James Webb Space Telescope is set to take a closer look at the asteroid soon, aiming to gather more data on its orbit and size.