2025 Fantasy Baseball Busts: Must-Avoid Starting Pitchers for Your SIERA Strategy

As fantasy baseball draft season begins, it’s essential to find the starting pitchers to focus on and those to avoid.

One effective way to evaluate pitchers is by looking at SIERA. This metric aims to provide a clearer picture of a pitcher’s performance by considering factors like strikeouts, walks, and ground balls. It highlights pitchers with high strikeout and low walk rates, appreciating ground balls more than fly balls.

In past years, we’ve accurately predicted declines in players like Alek Manoah. This year, while there may not be anyone as extreme as Manoah, there are still pitchers who might merit a closer look.

Top ERA Overachievers of Last Year

Here’s a look at pitchers whose ERAs were significantly better than their SIERA in 2024, focusing on those who pitched at least 85 innings last season.

Highlighted players include Hunter Greene, Ronel Blanco, and Reynaldo Lopez. Let’s dive deeper into their performances and see who may be worth a gamble and who to avoid.

Overachiever Pitching Profiles

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 98

Greene stands out as a talented pitcher. Last season, he achieved career highs in innings pitched, wins, ERA, and WHIP. At just 25 years old, he’s positioned to lead the Reds’ rotation. His ERA fell to 4.82 last year, thanks in part to halving his home run rate. Although he excelled in 2024, some numbers indicate he might face regression due to a low HR/FB% and an exceptionally low BABIP of .239.

He has a solid fastball but needs to develop a reliable third pitch to complement it. While his SIERA hints at potential risks due to his fly ball tendencies, he also has a high strikeout ability, making him worth considering in drafts.

Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 153

Lopez had a standout season with an ERA below two, a surprise given his past performance. He effectively stepped into the rotation after injuries hit the Braves’ pitching staff. However, his high strand rate could indicate unsustainable success. Lopez is likely to see his ERA rise, but he showed enough promise that he may still provide decent value as a mid-rotation option.

Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros

ADP: 216

Blanco also had a great year, finishing with an impressive 2.80 ERA. He bounced between starter and reliever roles, leading to some interesting stats. However, his low batting average against and high strand rate suggest he may not replicate that success. At 31, his trajectory is less certain, and there are other pitchers in a similar ADP range that could be better options.

Additional Pitching Candidates

Moving to pitchers with a lower ADP, players like Jameson Taillon (ADP: 347), David Peterson (ADP: 354), and Luis L. Ortiz (ADP: 378) have varying levels of appeal and concern based on their recent performances. Taillon and Abbott are less appealing based on their last seasons. Peterson is intriguing with some upside, focusing on effective pitches, but there are too many concerns with Ortiz to rely heavily on him.

To wrap things up, carefully consider the pitchers’ recent performances and potential for regression as you prepare for your fantasy baseball draft. As always, good luck with your selections!