The 2025 NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be a historic one, especially for the No. 1 seeds: Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida. According to advanced analytics, these teams have an adjusted efficiency margin above 35, marking the highest collective performance since these stats began tracking in 1997. Last year, even having two powerhouse teams didn’t yield numbers like this; last year’s top seeds only reached a combined 117.7 in net ratings. This year, that figure is a staggering 144.81.
Several trends explain this exceptional performance. High-major colleges are attracting many of the best players from mid-major programs due to the transfer portal. This season has also seen unprecedented offensive efficiency. Teams are scoring like never before, making it tough for any lower-seeded teams to rise up the ranks.
Look back on last year’s tournament, where traditional mid-majors found themselves struggling. No true mid-major advanced past the second round, highlighting the increasing divide between high and low major programs. For example, San Diego State and Gonzaga managed to make deeper runs, but they operate with resources that rival those of high-major teams. In contrast, Florida Atlantic, which reached the Final Four two years ago, has seen its entire roster change since then, with key players moving to bigger programs.
When it comes to filling out your bracket, history suggests that when we see elite teams dominating, one of the No. 1 seeds is likely to take the championship. In fact, a No. 1 seed has emerged victorious in six of the last seven tournaments. Relying on this trend may not be controversial, but it does speak to the dominance of the current top-tier teams.
South Region Highlights
Let’s dive into some matchups to watch. A standout is Michigan facing UC San Diego. Michigan’s struggles with turnovers could be tested by UC San Diego’s fierce defense. However, Michigan’s size might give them the advantage.
Louisville finds itself as a surprising No. 8 seed, likely due to the underperformance of the ACC this season. Their success will hinge on which players can handle Creighton’s strong lineup.
On another note, Iowa State, once thought to be a Final Four contender, will now be challenged after losing star player Keshon Gilbert for the season. This might open the door for Ole Miss to pull off a mini-upset.
West Region Insights
The West Region has potential for surprises. Florida has a daunting path, possibly meeting UConn and Maryland on their way to the Final Four. Memphis, despite winning the AAC championship, might fall short without key player Tyrese Hunter. Meanwhile, Colorado State has been on fire lately, winning ten straight games.
Drake is another team to watch. They have a track record of performing well against high-major programs, and their coach has a reputation for success in the NCAA Tournament.
East Region Matchups
In the East, Oregon vs. Liberty is an intriguing matchup. Liberty’s pace and three-point shooting could upset Oregon, known for its fast play. BYU brings an entertaining style of play and has been on a roll lately.
Duke is another team that stands out. While some question their dominance in the weaker ACC, they’ve proven they can compete at high levels — the comparison to Gonzaga’s success out of the WCC isn’t far off.
Midwest Region Projections
In the Midwest, Houston is wary of facing Gonzaga in the second round. Gonzaga has a knack for thriving in March. Meanwhile, Illinois has had a tumultuous season but might find strength with a more solid roster now.
As the tournament approaches, keep an eye on how these narratives unfold. The combination of analytical trends, player movements, and coaching strategies could make this NCAA Tournament one to remember.
For more statistics, check out the latest analysis from respected sources like KenPom and review expert opinions on the tournament’s dynamics this year.
Check out this related article: 2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket: UCLA, South Carolina, Texas, and USC Claim Top Seeds!
Source linkHouston Cougars, Duke Blue Devils, St. John's Red Storm, Michigan State Spartans, Florida Gators, Alabama Crimson Tide, Tennessee Volunteers, Auburn Tigers, Men's College Basketball
