Last year’s Kentucky Derby ended in a nail-biting finish, with Mystik Dan narrowly beating Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Interestingly, in 45 of the previous 150 races leading up to the 2025 Kentucky Derby, winners triumphed by just one length or less. This year’s lineup seems particularly balanced, with no standout horse. Journalism, the 3-1 favorite, has some question marks, having lost a few races and only participated in one Grade 1 stakes event. Following him are Sovereignty at 5-1 and Sandman at 6-1.

The race will take place at Churchill Downs this Saturday, with the starting time set for 6:57 p.m. ET. Mystik Dan notched a surprising victory last year at 18-1 odds. Are there any hidden gems among the 2025 contenders? Before you place any bets, consider the insights from Jody Demling, an expert in horse racing. His track record is impressive, having correctly predicted multiple Derby outcomes over the years.
One surprise in Demling’s analysis is his skepticism about Rodriguez, who is currently at 12-1 odds. Rodriguez’s recent performance has been shaky; he’s finished behind other competitors in key races. Although he won the Wood Memorial to qualify for the Derby, Demling notes he hasn’t consistently outperformed the competition.
A fresh contender to watch is Luxor Cafe. Despite being a longshot at 15-1, he has been on a winning streak, including three stakes races. With renowned jockey Joao Moreira on board, Luxor Cafe steps into the spotlight. His lineage also carries weight; he’s sired by American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner. There’s a growing belief that Japanese horses are starting to make waves in the Derby scene, especially after Forever Young’s strong finish last year.
Interestingly, experts agree that Luxor Cafe’s success could hint at a broader trend. A recent study found that international horses are increasingly becoming competitive in U.S. racing, suggesting we might see more top finishes from them in the future.
As the Derby approaches, Demling hints at a potential double-digit longshot that’s generating excitement. You won’t want to miss his full breakdown of the contenders and strategies, available at SportsLine.
In summary, with the odds and post positions locked in, this year’s Kentucky Derby promises to be unpredictable. Keep an eye on those longshots, as a surprise win could lead to substantial payouts.
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