By Giovanni Strona, Senior Researcher at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre
In 2025, over 295 million people worldwide faced hunger due to conflicts, climate change, and economic troubles. Unfortunately, experts warn that this situation may worsen. Research indicates that by 2100, climate change could potentially lead to food crises for more than a billion people. This number reflects not only current populations but also future generations.
I study the environment using data and computer models to understand how climate change affects food security. I developed an AI model to predict the impact of climate shifts on food availability. This model used information from the Famine Early Warnings Systems Network and analyzed temperature and rainfall data across the globe.
The findings are concerning. If greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current levels, more than 1.1 billion people, including over 600 million children, could face severe food shortages by the end of the century. Africa is expected to be hit hardest, with some estimates predicting that 170 million people there could experience food crises as early as 2099.
Conversely, if countries significantly reduce carbon emissions and move towards sustainable practices, they could halve the number of people impacted by food insecurity. This demonstrates that policy choices will heavily influence the outcome.
The Impact of Climate Information
To create my model, I analyzed extensive data from U.S. agencies alongside economic projections for different countries. The results revealed an alarming trend. The number of people experiencing severe food insecurity has nearly tripled from 50 million in 2011 to around 150 million by 2020.
Looking ahead, the situation appears dire. By 2100, more than 1.16 billion individuals may face severe food crises, mainly in regions like central Africa, which have both high vulnerability to climate change and rapidly growing populations. Notably, over 600 million children will likely encounter their first food crisis before turning five.
However, there is a glimmer of hope. My research suggests that 780 million people could be spared from food crises if nations adopt sustainable development practices. If governments aggressively transition away from fossil fuels and promote green energy, the annual average of people experiencing food shortages could significantly decrease.
Future Crises and Africa’s Role
Most future food crises are projected to occur in vulnerable areas, especially in Africa and Asia. In Africa, expect widespread food insecurity, particularly in the Horn of Africa and parts of the Sahel.
Interestingly, Africa has the potential to reduce food crises faster by fostering sustainability and peace. If conflicts can be minimized and fossil fuel reliance can be curtailed, the impact of food insecurity could decline sharply after 2050.
Looking Ahead: Urgent Action Needed
Climate change poses a serious threat to food security, but the extent of that threat depends on our choices today. Hundreds of millions could be saved from hunger through effective global policies focused on sustainability.
It’s crucial to remember that simply growing more food isn’t enough. We need robust food systems that can withstand climate crises. A united effort towards equity, peace, and sustainable practices is vital. Time is running out, and we must act now to ensure future generations have the food security they deserve.
For further insights, consider the Food and Agriculture Organization’s report that delves deeper into food security trends and challenges.
This urgent public discussion has gained traction on platforms like Twitter, where experts and everyday users share concerns about these alarming predictions. Engaging in this dialogue could help drive awareness and action on a global scale.
Source link
climate crisis,extreme heat,extreme weather,food supply
