Climate change news keeps getting worse. Across Africa, extreme weather is wreaking havoc, destroying lives and altering communities.
The planet is warming faster than ever recorded. Despite this, many governments are slow to act.
The next big climate summit, COP30, is just around the corner. Countries were expected to submit updated climate plans back in February. These plans are crucial for outlining how each nation will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C.
At COP30, nations will need to present new strategies for adapting to climate impacts. So far, only 25 countries, making up about 20% of global emissions, have submitted their plans. In Africa, only Somalia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are among those who have complied, leaving the majority lagging behind.
These plans, known as nationally determined contributions, are vital for setting targets for the future. They guide policy, investment, and planning. By aligning with global development goals, these efforts could lift about 175 million people out of poverty.
Alarmingly, only the UK’s plan aligns with the Paris Agreement.
Research from our climate science team indicates that human-driven warming reached 1.36°C in 2024. This pushed the global average temperature to 1.52°C. In simpler terms, we’ve crossed into a zone where significant climate disruption is inevitable.
Last year’s weather was record-breaking. Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases soared to new heights. At our current pace, the remaining carbon budget could be depleted in less than three years.
Sadly, the opportunity to stay below a 1.5°C rise is closing fast. Even if we manage to reverse the trend later on, it will be a challenging journey back.
Africa is facing its worst climate disaster in over a decade. To effectively manage an economy, timely and accurate data is crucial. In financial markets, leaders react quickly to changing figures, but with the climate, the speed of change often outpaces available data. This delay hinders informed decision-making.
As more nations finalize their climate plans, leaders must confront the facts of climate science directly. They need quick access to reliable data to develop timely plans. Wealthy nations, which have historically emitted the most greenhouse gases, must take the lead in setting ambitious targets and helping developing countries adapt.
In September, the UN will host Climate Week in Addis Ababa. This event will focus on climate finance and ensuring that the shift to net-zero emissions is fair. It will also support nations still working on their strategies.
If these plans are carried out, global warming could slow. This is crucial not just for vulnerable nations, but for global stability. Currently, only five G20 members—Canada, Brazil, Japan, the US, and the UK—have submitted their climate plans, while this group is responsible for about 80% of global emissions. South Africa, leading the G20, has a unique chance to encourage support for cleaner, low-carbon transitions in developing countries.
However, a concerning trend persists—only ten submitted plans strengthen commitments to phase out fossil fuels. The climate plans of the European Union, China, and India are essential for keeping the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal within reach. Many nations are waiting to see their next steps before filing their own plans.
Recent statistics help the global community understand where we are headed. The urgency for action is clear. All eyes should be on the biggest polluters to make significant, credible pledges before COP30. Every ton of carbon we reduce counts.
