An underwater volcano off the Oregon coast, known as Axial Seamount, is showing signs of activity. Scientists believe it might erupt before the end of the year.
Located nearly a mile below the ocean surface, this volcano has recently experienced an uptick in activity. In late March and early April alone, researchers noticed over 1,000 earthquakes per day. Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University, has studied this site for 30 years. He mentioned that "the seafloor is actually rising," which signals that magma is building up underneath. This buildup is often a precursor to an eruption.
Axial Seamount sits at a tectonic boundary between the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates, making it a hotspot for volcanic activity. The shifting plates contribute to pressure and magma movement in the area. Fortunately, experts like Chadwick stress that there’s little risk to nearby human life. He noted, “Even if you were out on a boat right over the seamount when it’s erupting, you probably would never know it.” The volcano’s depth and remote location mean coastal communities are unlikely to be affected.
Marine geophysicist William Wilcock from the University of Washington cautions that while an eruption is expected later this year or early 2026, it’s hard to predict precisely when it might happen.
Historically, Axial Seamount has erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015. The last eruption caused magma to spread across 25 miles of ocean floor, with some lava flows reaching a thickness of 450 feet—about two-thirds the height of Seattle’s Space Needle.
Interestingly, this volcano is also a unique ecosystem. It hosts diverse deep-sea life and hydrothermal vents that release mineral-rich fluids. These vents create habitats that quickly recover, even after being impacted by lava flows.
A recent study found a seasonal pattern: past eruptions have occurred between January and April, a time correlated with the Earth’s distance from the sun. Some scientists suggest the moon’s gravitational forces could influence volcanic timing, given the pressure exerted by ocean tides.
Debbie Kelley, who leads the Regional Cabled Array observatory, expressed hope that the next eruption could be livestreamed. This would be a groundbreaking event in seafloor volcanology, offering valuable insights into Earth’s geological processes without the dangers often associated with land eruptions.
As scientists continue to monitor Axial Seamount closely, they are keen to enhance eruption forecasting models. Such efforts could potentially improve our understanding of volcanic behavior around the globe.
For more about volcanic activity and monitoring, check resources like the US Geological Survey.
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