Are Climate Change Links to the NSW Floods Premature? Experts Weigh In

Attribution studies aim to link specific weather events to climate change. Yet, these studies often lag behind, sometimes releasing findings months after disasters. This delay can mean missing crucial moments when public interest and policy discussions are most active.

World Weather Attribution is a key player, having completed eight studies this year alone. They’ve analyzed events like the January fires in Los Angeles, bushfires in South Korea, and a heatwave in Central Asia. Other organizations, such as Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, are also diving into how climate change may influence individual weather events.

Rapid but rigorous methods allow for quicker insights. While they may not provide perfect precision, they can indicate the role climate change played in disasters. For instance, expert Andrew King explains that while general statements can be made quickly, precise numbers take longer due to the need for careful data collection.

Thorough attribution studies typically use multiple methodologies. ClimaMeter, for example, examines recent weather patterns against four decades of data, focusing on two distinct periods: before and after 1987. This helps researchers understand changes related to climate change while openly acknowledging uncertainties within their findings.

In a recent study on floods in New South Wales (NSW), researchers found that meteorological conditions leading to those floods were wetter and warmer than in the past. They concluded that human-induced climate change significantly intensified the extreme rainfall responsible for the flooding.

However, not everyone is entirely on board with rapid attribution analyses. Professor David Karoly, a renowned climate expert, raises concerns about the speed and methodology of some studies. He argues that quick analyses may overlook vital details. Despite his critiques, Karoly acknowledges the overall conclusion aligns with findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): extreme rainfall events are intensifying as the planet warms.

Supporting this, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s 2024 State of the Climate report states that extreme daily rainfall events are expected to rise by about 8% for every degree of warming. Hourly extreme rainfall could even increase by 15% for the same temperature rise. This goes beyond what would be expected simply from a warmer atmosphere holding more moisture.

As climate change continues to evolve, the need for accurate, timely research becomes more crucial. Understanding the link between our changing climate and extreme weather can help communities better prepare for future challenges.



Source link