ASML Stock Plummets 6.5% Amid Uncertainty About 2026 Growth: What Investors Need to Know

ASML has raised some eyebrows recently by suggesting it might not grow in 2026, despite reporting strong results for the second quarter. On a Wednesday call, CEO Christophe Fouquet flagged the uncertainty in the market, citing economic and geopolitical factors that cloud the future.

In the short term, ASML did exceed expectations, bringing in about €7.7 billion (roughly $8.95 billion) in revenue, which was higher than the €7.52 billion analysts predicted. Net profit also looked good at €2.29 billion, surpassing expectations of €2.04 billion.

But the company’s outlook for the current quarter is less rosy, predicting revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion. This missed estimates of €8.3 billion. ASML did narrow its revenue forecast for full-year 2025, projecting a 15% growth instead of the previously anticipated larger increase.

In terms of bookings—an important indicator of demand—ASML reported €5.5 billion for the quarter, much more than the forecast of €4.19 billion. This demand is largely driven by the growing need for chips used in AI applications. ASML’s CFO, Roger Dassen, noted that a strong demand for machine upgrades and a lesser impact from tariffs helped boost performance.

ASML stands out in the semiconductor industry because it produces the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines necessary for making advanced chips, which are essential for companies like Apple and Nvidia. As the demand for AI technology surges, so does ASML’s business. Dassen pointed out that AI is a significant driver for EUV machines, emphasizing the interconnectedness of technology advancements and their manufacturing needs.

In a historic comparison, the semiconductor industry underwent a similar boom in the late 1990s, driven by the rise of the internet and mobile technology. Today, AI is the new frontier fueling growth, highlighting how technological trends can reshape market dynamics.

ASML is also debuting its next-generation EUV machines, known as High NA, which can be larger than a double-decker bus and cost upwards of $400 million each. They shipped one of these tools in the last quarter, marking a step toward future growth.

For now, ASML is navigating a complicated landscape, balancing growth potential with uncertainties that could affect its future.



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