Assessing Climate Security in the Indo-Pacific: The Impact of Trump’s Presidency | Toda Peace Institute

In the early days of his second presidency, Donald Trump has stirred significant changes. His approach includes drastic cuts to federal spending and aggressive tariffs, raising concerns about democracy both domestically and internationally. Amid these sweeping changes, climate change remains a pressing issue, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.

This article explores how Trump’s policies may impact climate security in this area. Although his presidency has just begun, the initial effects are troubling.

On his first day in office, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. While these agreements weren’t perfect, they served as essential foundations for global efforts to combat climate change. The U.S., being the second-largest emitter of CO₂, plays a critical role. With this withdrawal, other nations might also reduce their commitments, exacerbating vulnerabilities in the Indo-Pacific, where many countries like Bangladesh and the Pacific Island nations are already at risk from climate-related issues.

Moreover, addressing climate change has financial implications. Communities need to develop drought-resistant agriculture and disaster response strategies, all of which require funding. Trump’s tariffs could strain resources, making it harder for countries in the Indo-Pacific to invest in climate adaptation.

International aid cuts will worsen the situation further. Last year, USAID provided nearly $3 billion in assistance to South and East Asia, critical for tackling climate hazards. Reduced funding may thwart these essential programs, leaving nations like Bangladesh more susceptible to disasters.

The Trump administration has also slashed research funding for climate science. Essential data used in forecasting disasters is now less accessible, undermining efforts to tackle climate change effectively. This gap in knowledge affects not just human security but also national security, as researchers warn that climate change can escalate conflicts and drive migration.

Institutions like the U.S. Institute for Peace have been key in studying the links between climate and conflict. Their dismantling could hinder international cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, where allies might struggle with increased disasters and social unrest due to environmental stresses.

In summary, Trump’s presidency has already created significant knowledge and resource gaps in climate security, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. However, amidst these challenges, there are hopeful signs. Countries like India and Australia are beginning to acknowledge climate change’s security implications. Japan is actively supporting climate assessments, while the Philippines is enhancing disaster response efforts. These individual initiatives are crucial steps forward in addressing climate challenges.

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Author Note:
Tobias Ide is an Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations at Murdoch University, with extensive research on climate, peace, and security. For more insights, you can explore his work in various academic journals.

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