Asteroid 2024 YR4 Record-High Impact Probability: What You Need to Know and How It Could Change

A newly discovered asteroid named 2024 YR4 is making headlines as the most dangerous asteroid ever identified. NASA assesses that there’s a 3.1% chance it could strike Earth in 2032, while the European Space Agency (ESA) puts the chance at 2.8%. This slight difference arises from the different methods used by each agency to analyze the asteroid’s path.

These probabilities are notable because they surpass the previous concern surrounding the asteroid Apophis, which was thought to have a 2.7% chance of collision when it was identified in 2004. At 1,148 feet (350 meters) in diameter, Apophis was rated a 4 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating a significant threat. However, further research in 2021 reassessed that risk, leading to a lower rating.

Currently, 2024 YR4 sits at a 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating it could cause localized damage if it were to hit Earth. This asteroid is estimated to be between 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, about the size of a large building. “For asteroids larger than 30 meters, this one holds the record for the highest impact probability,” says ESA officials.

The rising impact probabilities come from ongoing observations that refine our understanding of the asteroid’s orbit. Scientists expect that more data will likely lower the chances of a collision as they better define its path. Tracking efforts are essential, especially since the asteroid won’t be visible until June 2028 after its recent close pass.

Richard Binzel, the creator of the Torino Scale, explains that while 2024 YR4 is now considered risky, it’s essential to note that its impact probabilities can fluctuate. “It’s normal for these chances to change as we gather more information,” he says. Astronomers are actively monitoring the asteroid to get an accurate read on its future trajectory.

Binzel compares the uncertainty of the asteroid’s position to a long fettuccine noodle stretching across the moon’s orbit around Earth. The Earth occupies just a small part of that noodle at any given time. As more data comes in, the noodle shrinks, which helps refine predictions about the asteroid’s path.

2024 YR4 was first spotted after it swung by Earth in December. It is something scientists will continue to track, especially since it’s expected to pass near Jupiter’s orbit at its farthest point. Instruments like the James Webb Space Telescope will soon be drafted into the mission to observe the asteroid and gather more precise data.

While the chances of a collision remain low, researchers are committed to watching 2024 YR4 closely. “Ultimately, it’s nature that will decide its path,” Binzel concludes. For now, astronomers urge caution and ongoing vigilance to track this celestial wanderer.