Asteroid 2024 YR4: Why This Near-Miss Could Still Impact Your Day – Find Out How!

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has shifted from a potential Earth threat to a focus on its possible impact with the moon. While it once had a 1 in 43 chance of striking our planet, it now boasts a 4% chance of hitting the moon in 2032.

If this impact occurs, it could lead to fascinating—and potentially disruptive—consequences. New studies indicate that debris from the moon could damage satellites orbiting Earth and create a spectacular meteor shower visible from our surface.

Paul Wiegert, an astronomer from the University of Western Ontario, explained, “A strike on the moon poses no risk to us on Earth because our atmosphere would absorb the impact. However, it could endanger any astronauts or equipment on the moon and certainly threatens satellites above our atmosphere.”

Should the asteroid hit, it would release energy comparable to 6 million tons of TNT. To put this in perspective, that’s much larger than the explosion caused by the “Little Boy” bomb that decimated Hiroshima, which was about 15,000 tons of TNT. This impact would create a crater around 1 kilometer across. Most rock and debris would fall back to the moon, but a fraction—between 10 million and 100 million kilograms—could escape into space.

The speed of the ejected debris will be significant, around 22,400 miles per hour. That’s much slower than typical meteors but still fast enough to inflict damage on satellites, which are about 236,000 miles from the moon. Fortunately, this gives us plenty of time to prepare for any potential threat.

Even though the debris would mostly burn up upon entering our atmosphere, some fragments measuring over 3 feet might survive. Wiegert mentioned, “With the right impact location on the moon, this material could linger in our space environment for years.”

This situation has drawn comparisons to the Torino Scale, which assesses the hazard of near-Earth objects. Richard Binzel, who created the Torino Scale, noted that the possible outcomes of YR4’s moon impact are too varied to fit into a single rating system. Instead, the focus should be on gathering data and confirming whether the asteroid will hit. “The more we measure, the more certain we can be about the hit or miss,” he stated.

As we look forward, the asteroid will become visible again in 2028, providing further insights into its course and potential impact. Until then, there’s a 4% chance we’ll see the moon light up in a celestial fireworks display. That would be an exciting moment worth observing, whether through binoculars or a small telescope.

Research on this topic has been submitted for publication in the American Astronomical Society journals, and a preprint can be found on arXiv.

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