Asteroid Alert: The Risk of a Giant Collision with Earth in 2032 Plummets to Just 0.0017%

Recently, headlines warned about a giant asteroid speeding toward Earth. Although it wouldn’t have ended life as we know it, it posed a risk of significant damage.

Now, we can relax. The chance of a collision is incredibly low. Earlier this year, the odds of an impact increased briefly but have since dropped to almost nothing.

The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, measures about 40 to 90 meters (130 to 300 feet) wide. That’s much smaller than the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, which was six to nine miles wide. Still, if 2024 YR4 had hit, it could have unleashed energy equal to 7.8 megatonnes of TNT, potentially causing destruction in a city.

To keep a close eye on this asteroid, experts started tracking its path. Initially, there was a 3.1% chance of it hitting Earth in 2032, but thanks to NASA’s updated data, that risk is now just 0.0017%. This means there’s a 99.9983% likelihood that it will miss us entirely. Current assessments place this asteroid at zero risk on the Torino impact hazard scale, which ranges from no risk to global catastrophe.

This change wasn’t surprising. As the European Space Agency mentioned, an asteroid’s collision probability can rise and then fall again as more observations are made.

Colin Snodgrass, a planetary astronomy professor at the University of Edinburgh, explained that this situation demonstrates the effectiveness of monitoring efforts. Higher-than-normal risk levels prompted more observations, leading experts to conclude there will be no impact.

Snodgrass also noted that similar alerts may become more frequent. As the new Vera Rubin Observatory begins its sky scan this year, it will discover many more asteroids, some of which may require further attention. He emphasized that these alerts are not alarming but rather a sign that our technology is advancing. Improved detection means that if a potentially dangerous asteroid is discovered, we may have more time to react.