Asteroid Impact on the Moon? NASA Increases Odds for 2032 Collision – What You Need to Know!

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is back in the news, not as a threat to Earth, but because of a slight increase in the chance it could hit the moon in 2032. Once thought to be the most dangerous asteroid, its odds of collision have changed based on new observations.

In May, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) spotted the asteroid, allowing a team from Johns Hopkins to refine its predicted path. This work increased its chance of impacting the moon from 3.8% to 4.3%. Despite this, researchers assure us that a moon collision would not affect its orbit.

Astronomer Pawan Kumar notes that a crash with the moon isn’t a major concern. He explains that any debris from such an impact would likely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere if it drifted near our planet.

Discovered on December 27, 2022, 2024 YR4 is about 174 to 220 feet long—similar to a 10-story building. When it was first identified, it had a risk of striking Earth above 1%. This risk peaked at 3.1% after follow-up observations, causing public worry. However, as scientists collected more data, the risk decreased sharply. By February 24, NASA announced the asteroid is expected to pass safely by Earth in 2032, with risks dwindling to just 0.004%.

Further studies indicate that 2024 YR4 likely comes from the main belt of asteroids between Mars and Jupiter before moving to its current orbit. Recent telescope observations from Chile and Hawaii support this theory.

While 2024 YR4 no longer presents a danger, it provided critical insights for planetary defense strategies. Kumar called it a “tailor-made asteroid” for testing our response plans, highlighting the importance of preparation for any future threats. The asteroid also reminds us of the evolving nature of our understanding of space risks and how technology helps us track and analyze these cosmic bodies.

For more updates on planetary defense, you can check NASA’s latest findings on asteroid tracking [here](https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids). This situation illustrates how scientists continuously adapt their predictions with new data, showcasing our commitment to keeping Earth safe.

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