Asteroid Risk vs. Rabies: Surprising New Research Reveals What’s More Likely to Threaten Your Life

If you’ve ever lain awake at night wondering about the odds of dying from an asteroid impact, you’re not alone. A recent study led by physicist Carrie Nugent from Olin College of Engineering sheds some light on this topic.

The study finds that, surprisingly, you’re more likely to die from an asteroid impact than from rabies. However, the risk of dying in a car accident is much higher than from an asteroid collision. The good news? The chances of any of these events happening are quite low, so there’s no need to lose sleep over it—though wearing a seatbelt is still a smart idea!

Understanding the risk of asteroid impacts helps us put it in context with other causes of death. While it’s tricky to pinpoint the exact risk—there may be many lurking asteroids yet to be discovered—scientists suggest that asteroid impacts can be preventable.

NASA showcased this capability in 2022 by successfully crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid. The mission was more effective than expected, creating a noticeable change in the asteroid’s orbit. Although such missions can be expensive, evaluating risks alongside other preventable causes of death, like road safety measures or rabies vaccination programs, is essential.

Nugent and her team analyzed data on near-Earth objects and models of them to assess the likelihood of impacts from asteroids larger than 140 meters (about 460 feet). They then compared these risks to other causes of death over an average human life span of 71 years.

In their research, they examined nine other potentially deadly events, including lightning strikes, car crashes, and dry sand hole collapses. The odds vary greatly depending on your location. For instance, the chances of dying from a coyote attack in Australia are significantly lower than in some parts of the U.S.

The results were intriguing. The flu is similarly lethal to an asteroid impact but occurs far more frequently, suggesting that flu-related deaths will far exceed those from asteroid strikes. Interestingly, while dry sand hole collapses have a low likelihood of occurring, when they do, they tend to be fatal.

Although translating these risk assessments into real-world terms can be challenging, the data shows that caution is wise when it comes to asteroids. There are no recorded human fatalities from asteroid impacts so far, but history tells us that such events can have devastating effects, as seen in the extinction of the dinosaurs.

Experts caution that Earth isn’t necessarily overdue for an asteroid impact, but it does raise a question: Should we focus on prevention, or are we worrying too much? This research, set to be published in the Planetary Science Journal, offers valuable insights into how we perceive risk in our daily lives. In the meantime, you might want to stay away from those sand holes!

For more details, you can check out the study on arXiv and keep an eye out for it in the Planetary Science Journal here.

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