If asteroid 2024 YR4 hits the Moon, it could cause an impressive flash. This bright burst would be seen from Earth and could scatter debris into our atmosphere. Some of this debris might turn into meteors visible in our night sky. Plus, scientists believe it would generate an infrared glow that could linger for hours.
A recent study looks into what would happen if this asteroid struck the Moon in 2032. The asteroid was first spotted in December 2024, and it sparked discussions about its potential risk. At one point, there was a 3.1% chance it could collide with Earth. Thankfully, more observations, especially from the James Webb Space Telescope, suggested that it poses no threat to our planet but could hit the Moon instead.
By April 2025, further research indicated a 3.8% chance of it impacting the Moon, and scientists estimated the asteroid’s size to be around 60 meters wide. This news, while somewhat concerning, has helped researchers prepare for the asteroid’s return on December 22, 2032.
According to a draft paper titled “Observation Timelines for the Potential Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4,” the chances of it hitting the Moon now stand at 4.3%. If it lands, it could create a crater about 1 kilometer wide—the biggest lunar impact event recorded.
The flash from the impact could reach around magnitude -3, making it brighter than Sirius, the brightest star visible from Earth. Such a flash would last several minutes, while the heat from the impact might generate an afterglow detectable for hours. In addition, this event could trigger a global Moonquake that seismic instruments would easily notice.
Experts predict that about 108 kilograms of lunar rocks and dust could escape the Moon’s gravity. Some of these fragments might collide with Earth, resulting in meteors. Despite the concerns, the scenario presents a unique scientific opportunity. Observers could gather fresh data about the Moon’s surface and materials.
Looking ahead, the study mentions that astronomers could start observing 2024 YR4 as early as 2028, enhancing predictions about its potential collision. Crucially, as the impact date approaches, scientists will be able to fine-tune their predictions about where it might strike the Moon.
The lunar impact is expected on a waning gibbous Moon, around 70% illuminated. The best viewers will likely be in the Pacific hemisphere. South America, Europe, and Asia will face challenges as daylight may hinder visibility.
The study authors have outlined a timeline of events. The impact could cause a bright flash, potentially observed by scientists with powerful telescopes. Minutes after, the resulting crater would still glow in infrared. In the days following the impact, observers could see a meteor shower caused by lunar debris reaching Earth. Some of this material might even survive to land here, giving scientists the chance to study lunar meteorites in years to come.
