Box Office Showdown: ‘Novocaine’ Takes the Lead Over ‘Black Bag’ and ‘Mickey 17’ in a Thrilling Race as Theaters Brace for a Slow Weekend in 2025

Movie theaters have been unusually quiet in early 2025, and this weekend could be one of the slowest yet. With two new releases—Paramount’s comedy "Novocaine" and Focus Features’ spy flick "Black Bag"—box office numbers might not reach the promising eight figures. This slump is strikingly similar to the dismal February weekend in 2024, when Apple’s franchise-launching "Argylle" tanked in its second week.

As of now, "Novocaine" appears to have the upper hand. The film, starring Jack Quaid as a pain-free banker-turned-vigilante, opened with $3.9 million from 3,365 theaters, and is projected to hit around $8.5 million by the weekend’s end. Despite this, the anticipated $10 million opening seems out of reach. Interestingly, a recent poll by CinemaScore gave the movie a mixed "B" grade, suggesting that while some viewers enjoyed it, others were less impressed.

On the other hand, "Black Bag," directed by renowned filmmaker Steven Soderbergh, earned $2.8 million on its opening day from 2,705 theaters. The film, with a $50 million budget, features big names like Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender. Although Soderbergh typically garners critical acclaim, "Black Bag" has also received a lukewarm "B" grade from audiences.

In its second week, "Mickey 17," a sci-fi comedy directed by Bong Joon Ho, is expected to fall to second place with projected earnings of around $2.2 million. After a promising opening, the film’s steep anticipated drop may lead to a disappointing total of just $33 million domestically, especially given its hefty $118 million production cost.

Disney’s "Captain America: Brave New World" is likely to finish in fourth place, adding another $1.5 million on Friday and reaching a $181.4 million domestic total. While it has surpassed other Marvel films like "Ant-Man" and "Thor," it still may end up as one of the lowest-grossing entries in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, ranking towards the bottom of the list.

Meanwhile, Ketchup Entertainment’s animated film "The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie" hopes to round out the top five. Originally produced for HBO Max, the film earned about $1 million on Friday, and early reviews are looking favorable.

Additionally, the independent film "The Last Supper," distributed by Pinnacle Peaks Pictures, could sneak into the top five with its $1 million opening day. It earned an impressive "A-" CinemaScore, suggesting that audiences are responding better to it.

Lastly, A24’s "Opus," which parodies celebrity cults, struggled with only $420,000 on its opening day. Despite its low production cost, the film received negative reviews, leaving its future in jeopardy.

As we watch this weekend’s box office unfold, experts predict ongoing challenges for theaters. The shift towards streaming and changes in viewer habits show that cinema is at a crossroads. Recent data indicates a 20% decline in theater attendance compared to pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the need for innovative films and experiences.

For more insights on the changing landscape of cinema, consider checking out resources from The Motion Picture Association or similar trusted sources.

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