Brace for Impact: How Extreme Weather Could Double Cocoa and Coffee Prices by 2025, Sparking Food Price Volatility

Experts say that extreme weather will make food prices unstable throughout 2025. Over the past year, prices for cocoa and coffee have more than doubled. A study by Inverto found significant price hikes in various food items linked to unexpected weather patterns.

The year 2024 was noted as the hottest on record, and this trend of rising temperatures seems to carry into 2025. Inverto indicates that ongoing extreme weather will continue to harm crop production and trigger price spikes in the future.

Specifically, cocoa prices shot up by 163%, while coffee prices rose by 103%. This surge results from higher rainfall and temperatures in key producing areas.

Sunflower oil prices also saw a surge of 56% due to drought in Bulgaria and Ukraine, which are still impacted by the ongoing conflict. Other food items like orange juice and butter increased by over a third, and beef prices rose by a little more than 25%.

Katharina Erfort from Inverto emphasizes the need for food manufacturers and retailers to diversify their supply chains. Relying heavily on one region can lead to supply issues, especially during crop failures.

In December, the UK government reported that the climate crisis is raising the number of households facing hunger and malnutrition. Climate scientists agree with Inverto’s findings. Pete Falloon, a food security expert, mentioned that extreme weather events will become more frequent and severe as global temperatures rise.

Experts warn that crops are often susceptible to these environmental changes. This can lead to ongoing disruptions in agriculture and supply chains, raising concerns about food security globally.

Max Kotz from the Potsdam Institute stated that extreme heat is already affecting food prices. He cited examples from last year, where rising temperatures in East Asia led to increased rice and vegetable prices. The West African cocoa market and coffee regions in Brazil and Vietnam also faced price hikes due to extreme weather conditions.

Until greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to net zero, the situation is unlikely to improve. The cycle of heat and drought will continue affecting agriculture and food prices, leading to further challenges ahead.

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