Brace Yourself: The Red Wave of Health Care Transformation is Here!

It sounds like a grand idea—offer tax cuts upfront, but push painful changes to later. This is the approach behind the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), which many see as a significant blow to health care in the U.S.

The bill is set to cut $793 billion from federal Medicaid and reduce help for those buying insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by $268 billion over ten years. Sure, there are some tax benefits, but they mainly favor wealthier individuals, leaving many families in a tough spot.

This change has spurred states to evaluate the potential fallout on their residents and budgets. According to estimates, about 16 million Americans could lose their health insurance, including those on Medicaid and those covered through ACA marketplaces. While the effects won’t be felt immediately, they will be long-lasting.

Fiscal Concerns

If balanced budgets are important to you, this bill is alarming. The OBBBA is expected to add over $3 trillion to the national deficit by 2034. Even estimates from the Tax Foundation indicate a significant increase in debt. This isn’t just a political issue; it’s a warning for those concerned about fiscal responsibility.

Health Care Progress at Risk

In 2017, an attempt to overturn the ACA failed by just one vote. Now, with unified support from Republicans, the OBBBA threatens to reverse much of the progress achieved since the ACA was enacted. By 2023, the uninsured rate dropped to a historic low of 8%. In Virginia alone, the uninsured rate plummeted from 14.3% to 7.6% after Medicaid expansion in 2018.

Now, we are facing the possibility of losing these gains.

Many will likely lose their Medicaid benefits. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that about 7.8 million people could lose Medicaid coverage by 2034. This has made the bill unpopular, even among conservative voters.

Also, the tax subsidies that help people afford private insurance are expected to decrease, leading to soaring premiums. Experts estimate that between 3 and 5 million Americans may forgo their insurance due to cost, leading to turmoil in the insurance marketplace. This pressure may also lead some insurance providers to withdraw from the program, resulting in even fewer choices for consumers.

Local Hospitals in Jeopardy

Recent analyses show that over 700 rural hospitals are already struggling financially. With more people uninsured, these hospitals may face even bigger challenges, as they will still be compelled to treat those who come in needing care. Hospitals will be left to cover these costs, or turn to state governments for help, which may not always be available.

Moreover, a provision in the bill could reduce financial support that states receive to help hospitals serve Medicaid patients. This could make a difficult situation worse, especially for rural communities that rely heavily on these hospitals.

Potential Medicare Cuts

Though past promises suggested Medicare would remain untouched, the OBBBA’s impact may lead to $500 billion in cuts to Medicare if the deficit isn’t addressed. This could mean a significant decrease in payments to hospitals, which could hurt seniors and others relying on this program.

State Budgets at Risk

With reduced federal funds, states like Virginia may find themselves in a tight spot, needing to either cut services or search for new funding sources. States may have to tighten Medicaid eligibility, and costs for administering programs may increase.

Many of the OBBBA cuts will take effect after the midterms, pushing states into a challenging position. How states decide to implement new rules and handle Medicaid eligibility will shape residents’ access to healthcare.

The Power of Your Vote

The coming elections will be crucial for shaping the future of healthcare policies that affect millions. Whether in Virginia or New Jersey, voters will play a key role in how these changes impact local communities.

Recent polls show growing awareness about the repercussions of bills like the OBBBA, indicating that public sentiment could lead to political change.

For more information about the potential impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, you can check out this analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation here.

David J. Toscano is an attorney based in Charlottesville, Virginia, with experience serving in the Virginia House of Delegates.

Source link

health care, medicaid, medicare, health crisis, medical funding, health, healthcare