The food industry is bracing for changes due to tariff policies introduced during the Trump administration. Many stakeholders might think that recent price hikes mean they’ve escaped the worst of it. However, industry analysts warn that this is a temporary situation and consumers may soon feel the impact.
In April 2025, President Trump implemented a series of import duties, which he referred to as “liberation day.” At that time, he claimed that foreign companies would absorb these costs and that prices for U.S. consumers would drop as local production increased. Yet, tariffs act like taxes, leading consumers to ultimately bear the financial burden.
So far, companies have managed to shield consumers from the full effect of these tariffs through various strategies, delaying or minimizing price increases. According to Ben Lerman from the market research firm Spins, this approach may not hold much longer. He estimates that by mid to late 2026, consumers will start to see significant price hikes tied to these tariffs.
Lerman noted that while some prices, like that of canned soda, haven’t seen drastic rises—only about 4% over a year—this has been achieved by spreading the tariff burden across multiple products. For instance, manufacturers have raised prices on items less impacted by tariffs to balance the overall cost.
Data shows an increase in U.S. steel and aluminum tariff revenue, jumping to approximately $7.79 billion in fiscal year 2025 compared to $1.60 billion in 2024. Still, the average price for canned soda remained stable. This careful strategy can only last so long, as the grocery supply chain typically reacts to traditional cost pressures with a delay.
Historically, when tariffs are implemented, their effects aren’t immediately visible. Lerman pointed out that the impact usually becomes apparent about 12 to 18 months later. Therefore, the repercussions of “liberation day” tariffs are expected between April and October 2026.
Research shows that these tariffs will likely make food more expensive, placing the highest burden on low-income consumers who already struggle with tight budgets. These consumers often lean on value products, which tend to have smaller profit margins. Experts suggest that companies may resort to “quiet inflation” tactics—like reducing package sizes or changing ingredients—to maintain margins without alarming customers.
Moreover, if additional tariffs on European products are imposed, items like cheese, olive oil, chocolate, and specialty foods will be heavily affected. Retailers may respond by offering more U.S.-made private label products, which could further impact brand market shares.
The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs adds to the challenge for companies planning for the future. GlobalData highlights that there’s a heightened risk of retaliation from the European Union and other countries if the U.S. enforces new tariffs. In fact, the EU is considering imposing around $107.7 billion in counter-tariffs against American goods, which could spiral into a complex trade conflict.
As newer tariffs become a reality, consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies need to stay alert. They should watch how competitors shift marketing strategies—whether they cut discounts to preserve brand loyalty or aim to reinforce perceived product value.
In summary, while consumers may feel some relief from price hikes for now, analysts expect that the true costs of tariffs will soon surface. The current situation is temporary, and the repercussions, shaped by market strategies and political influences, will both reshape the grocery landscape and impact consumers’ budgets.
For more insights on this evolving issue, check out the Harvard Business School and Kiel Institute studies for a deeper understanding of how tariffs affect pricing.
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