Breaking Climate Promises: How Fossil Fuel Production Plans Undermine Global Sustainability Goals | MR Online

Governments around the world are planning to produce far more fossil fuels than necessary to meet climate goals. According to the recent Production Gap Report, the 20 major greenhouse gas emitters aim to produce double the allowed amount for keeping global warming below 1.5°C.

Since 2019, this report has pointed out the gap between what governments plan to produce and what science says we need to limit climate change. Even though there is an international consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the reality is stark. Many countries are still increasing their fossil fuel production, which goes against their promises under the Paris Agreement.

In detail, the report found that planned production of coal, oil, and gas for 2030 exceeds the limits needed to keep warming to 1.5°C by a staggering 120%. This increase is troubling, especially since experts state that we need to significantly reduce fossil fuel use to avoid irreversible climate impacts.

For context, if we continue on this path, by 2030, the world could see coal production that’s 500% over safe levels, oil at 31% too high, and gas at 92% higher than what’s needed. This is alarming given the scientific consensus that we should be seeing a decline in fossil fuel production to limit further warming.

Moreover, a significant aspect of the problem is that as governments fail to cut back now, future reductions will only get harder and more expensive due to increased reliance on fossil fuel infrastructure. Cumulative production over this decade is likely to outpace acceptable boundaries, making it difficult to turn back to safer levels.

The last two years have emphasized the need to maintain the 1.5°C target. At COP28, nations agreed to pursue policies that keep this limit in sight. The International Court of Justice reinforced the importance of aiming for this target, recognizing it as essential for global and national strategies.

To meet these ambitious goals, countries need to commit to major reductions. Experts suggest a near-total phase-out of coal by 2040 and a 75% cut in oil and gas production by 2050. Evidence increasingly points to the feasibility of such shifts if governments act decisively.

So far, some countries are stepping up to align their energy production with climate commitments. For instance, Colombia is implementing a Just Energy Transition roadmap, while Germany is accelerating its coal phase-out. China is also pushing ahead with renewable energy projects, showcasing that it’s possible to transition away from fossil fuels.

However, progress is inconsistent. Many major fossil fuel-producing countries are still planning increases in production, undermining their climate commitments. This disparity highlights a pressing need for more robust policies aimed at phasing out fossil fuels and achieving a fair transition.

In conclusion, while some positive steps are being made, most countries must do much more to align their policies with climate goals. Transitioning to a sustainable energy future is essential for our planet and will require coordinated efforts across the globe.

For more detailed insights, you can check out the Production Gap Report from the Stockholm Environment Institute.

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