By Mohit Hira
Bravado and genuine belief are separated by a thin line. This small difference can lead to big outcomes in areas like economics, politics, and social behavior.
Vivek Nityananda, a behavioral biologist, uses his research on frogs to shed light on human behavior. His book, Beyond Doubt: Overconfidence and What It Means for Modern Society, dives deep into the theme of overconfidence, a trait that seems to be everywhere today. Overconfidence can show up in various ways, from delivery drivers speeding down narrow streets to analysts claiming AI-generated reports as their own.
This tendency affects everyone, from individuals to whole societies. Nityananda’s book is timely as it explores how overconfidence shapes our perceptions and decisions. For example, when President Trump returned to power, it sparked a wave of swift and bold decisions in the U.S.—similar to the quick policies sometimes seen in India—and both nations often overlook the real consequences of such confidence.
Overconfidence is a psychological bias that makes people overestimate their abilities and control over situations. Nityananda points out that this isn’t just an individual issue but a widespread one that impacts many sectors. He writes, “Everyone knows overconfidence, but it’s easiest to see in others.” As someone who has invested in startups, I often notice this overconfidence in funding pitches. When investors ignore doubt and leap into decisions, it can lead to significant miscalculations and a series of errors down the line.
Nityananda shares a classic Akbar-Birbal story in a chapter titled “Build a Lie,” illustrating the saying, ‘fools rush in where angels fear to tread.’ This serves as a reminder to readers to be cautious in their confidence.
Through his research, Nityananda shows that cultural factors can amplify overconfidence. For instance, a survey by YouGov found that 41% of Americans and 36% of Indians think their country is the best—a stark contrast to lower numbers in many European nations. This national pride can contribute to an inflated sense of confidence, sometimes causing people to ignore important warnings, as seen during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nityananda connects individual overconfidence to larger societal issues. For example, city planners often underestimate costs and timelines due to an inflated view of their capabilities. This problem isn’t restricted to one country; it’s a worldwide phenomenon, evident in infrastructure projects in both the U.S. and India, where budgets frequently exceed predictions while still failing to meet growing needs.
The book also highlights how cultural narratives shape people’s aspirations. In India, many identify as middle class, regardless of their actual economic status, which fuels an optimistic outlook about the future. In contrast, some Western cultures engage in a more realistic acknowledgment of economic difficulties.
Over the past thirty years, many Indians have become more confident, especially after the 1991 economic liberalization. This shift was evident in last year’s stock market boom, where overconfidence led many new investors to make hasty decisions that resulted in significant losses.
Nityananda doesn’t just identify the problem; he also suggests ways to combat overconfidence. He emphasizes the importance of awareness and education. By fostering critical thinking, individuals can make better decisions. A little mindfulness can help people challenge their biases and seek more grounded perspectives.
One notable takeaway is a quote from the book: “The expectation of a better life only reverses after the age of sixty-five.” This reminds us that while hope is motivating, it’s essential to stay realistic to avoid disappointment.
Beyond Doubt isn’t just for those who are overly confident; it encourages deep reflection on how overconfidence impacts lives and society. Nityananda’s insights are especially valuable for younger readers as they navigate their career choices. He prompts us to consider our biases and develop a more realistic outlook towards challenges. This book serves as both a cautionary tale and a call to action.
Mohit Hira is co-founder of Myriad Communications and a venture partner at YourNest Capital Advisors.
Book details:
Title: Beyond Doubt: Overconfidence and What It Means for Modern Society
Author: Vivek Nityananda
Publisher: Context
Number of pages: 300
Price: Rs 599
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economics, politics, society, book review, overconfidence, Beyond Doubt, Lifestyle
