The weather over the central United States is changing dramatically today. We’re facing a serious bimodal severe weather outbreak, which means there are two main areas where conditions for violent storms are particularly strong: the Mid-Mississippi Valley, including cities like Chicago and St. Louis, and the Southern Plains, especially West Texas.
This unusual weather is caused by a split-flow jet stream. One part moves across the northern Rockies while another flows from Mexico. As these systems come together, they draw in a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This creates a very unstable atmosphere across a vast area of about 1,500 miles.
In the Midwest, the main concern is a stalled front interacting with a strong low-level jet. This jet is a fast-moving river of air just above the ground. It creates conditions that allow for the growth of discrete supercells—individual storms that don’t compete for moisture and energy.
In this setup, temperatures are rising into the 80s, providing these supercells with over 2,000 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Think of CAPE as the energy available for storms to develop; anything over 1,000 is considered high, and today’s levels indicate a real risk for strong tornadoes (EF-2 or higher) and hail that can exceed 2 inches.
Over in Texas, a different scenario is unfolding. Here, the conditions are driven by a dryline—the line where dry air from the west meets the humid air from the east. The air high above Texas is particularly cold today, which means that storms forming along this line can rise very quickly. This rapid upward movement allows hailstones to become large, sometimes growing to the size of softballs before they fall.
While the risk for tornadoes in Texas isn’t as widespread as in the Midwest, the possibility of large hail and winds reaching 70 mph as storms consolidate into a line poses serious risks.
Historically, the central U.S. has faced severe weather outbreaks like this, often linked to similar jet stream patterns. Experts have noted that as climate change affects weather patterns, these severe events are becoming more frequent and intense. In fact, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the number of severe weather days in the United States has increased in recent years.
On social media, people are already sharing their concerns and experiences. Hail damage can lead to significant financial loss; recent surveys show that hailstorms caused around $13 billion in damages in 2020 alone. This serves as a reminder of the importance of preparedness during severe weather events.
Stay informed about the weather conditions in your area and take safety precautions if you’re in a storm-prone region. More information can be found at NOAA’s website, which offers valuable resources and up-to-date forecasts.
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