Building Stability in the Horn of Africa: Crafting a Strong Anti-Terrorism Alliance – OpEd

Fighting Al-Shabaab and Ethiopia’s Role

The USA and other democracies are deeply interested in combating terrorism in East Africa. Ethiopia has been an important player in this battle, especially against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Ethiopian troops have taken part in many missions under the African Union’s initiative, helping to stabilize the region. Ethiopia’s location and military strength have made it a vital ally in disrupting terrorist operations and halting the spread of extremist ideas.

However, this support has diminished since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed an agreement with Somaliland, changing the dynamics in the region.

Reasons Behind Abiy Ahmed’s Recognition of Somaliland

Prime Minister Abiy’s decision to recognize Somaliland stems from two key motivations: establishing a naval base and securing access to the sea. He hopes to regain support from Ethiopians amid a tough political climate. Unfortunately, this move has not gained much support domestically or internationally, leading to further challenges for Abiy’s government.

Why Abiy Ahmed is Not a Reliable Partner

Several factors make Abiy Ahmed a questionable ally in the fight against terrorism:

• His government is losing legitimacy due to an ongoing civil war. This situation limits his ability to send troops to Somalia to combat Al-Shabaab effectively.
• Abiy’s relationships with countries like the UAE, China, and Türkiye may conflict with US interests in the region.
• Despite signing a military agreement with Somalia, he also engaged with Somaliland, which complicates regional alliances.

These issues reveal that Abiy’s government is unlikely to foster peace or effectively combat terrorism. His actions could even worsen tensions with Somalia.

Finding a Path Forward

The stability of Ethiopia is crucial for the region and the world. To improve the situation, a peaceful resolution to the ongoing crisis is essential. The US and other nations can help by bringing together different stakeholders to address the core issues affecting Ethiopia.

Abiy’s leadership has become increasingly fragile. He faces opposition from significant parts of the population and struggles to control various regions, including Tigray and much of Oromia. Notably, prominent figures like Jewar Mohamed are now opposing him, further challenging his support base among the Oromo people.

Understanding and addressing the root causes of Ethiopia’s political crisis is urgent and necessary.

A New Approach for Stability

Given the turmoil in Ethiopia, a fresh approach is needed. Abiy’s failure to manage military efforts in Somalia and his unpredictable relations with different nations have compromised his ability to lead effectively. It’s clear that looking for new leadership may be vital for restoring stability in the Horn of Africa.

Abiy’s regime faces significant challenges that make it unlikely to survive the current crisis for much longer. The only question remaining is when changes will take place. Regional and international actors can play a crucial role in this transition. Instead of supporting Abiy, they should engage all stakeholders in discussions that could lead to a peaceful and democratic governance structure, fostering a reliable partnership for lasting peace in the region.