If you’re curious about what winter will look like in Canada, the predictions are mixed. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has noted potential warmer-than-average temperatures in parts of Nunavut, around Hudson Bay, and across Northern Quebec and Labrador. However, colder temperatures may occur in some areas of the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nova Scotia. Other regions, like parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, and southern Ontario, saw low confidence in forecasts, leaving many areas uncertain.
Jennifer Smith, a meteorologist with ECCC, explained that many zones were marked white on their maps, indicating there’s a lot of uncertainty. “Most of the map is white, which means any of the three outcomes — warm, cold, or average — are possible,” she said.
Why is there so much uncertainty? It’s a tug-of-war between climate change and La Niña, a natural cooling phase in the Pacific Ocean that can typically lower temperatures in Canada. Madalina Surcel, also from ECCC, mentioned that this winter appears to be affected by a weak La Niña. It mostly impacts Canada’s west, but it can have ripples all the way to the Great Lakes.
Frédéric Fabry, an atmospheric science expert at McGill University, shared insights on the matter. He noted that the colder waters of the Pacific are acting against the warming trend brought by climate change, making long-term weather predictions challenging. “This doesn’t mean it’s going to be a normal winter,” he cautioned, referring to changing weather patterns over recent years.
Recent studies highlight that despite some areas possibly having average temperatures, Canadians have grown used to milder winters. For instance, last winter was the warmest on record, so even “normal” conditions may feel like a chillier experience.
On top of temperature predictions, ECCC also believes that winter storms may increase in strength due to warmer ocean waters. They predict above-average precipitation in parts of the northwest and west of Canada. While they couldn’t confidently predict precipitation elsewhere, it’s an area to watch.
In addition to forecasting winter conditions, ECCC has expanded its monitoring system for extreme weather. They now analyze how climate change influences events like heavy rain or snow. A recent study found that since June 2025, 39 out of 42 extreme precipitation events in Canada were more likely because of climate change. An example was a significant rainfall event in Happy Valley-Goose Bay that had a higher likelihood due to these changes.
Experts emphasize that understanding the influence of climate change on weather can equip Canadians better. “It’s crucial for people to see the connection between daily weather events and climate change,” Fabry stated, underscoring how these patterns affect daily life, infrastructure, and even future planning.
For more detailed weather forecasts, you can visit the ECCC website for information.
