“Captain America: Brave New World” shows that Marvel is still going strong. This film marks the fourth installment in the Captain America series and the first one featuring Anthony Mackie as Sam Wilson, who now carries the iconic shield. It kicked off its run with a solid $100 million in the US over the Presidents Day weekend. Adding $92.4 million from international markets, the film reached a total of $192.4 million worldwide— the best opening of the year so far.
While an impressive start is typical for Marvel, the real test lies in its staying power in theaters. Historically, all 35 films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) have debuted at the top of the box office, despite mixed reviews on some. However, since the massive success of “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019, Marvel has faced challenges in maintaining consistent commercial success. Producing “Captain America: Brave New World” was no small feat, with a budget exceeding $180 million and marketing costs at least $100 million globally. This movie is just one of three Marvel films expected this year, alongside “Thunderbolts” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.”
Analyst Jeff Bock points out that few competitors are on the release calendar, which could help the film hold its audience. The next major release from Disney, a remake of “Snow White,” won’t hit theaters until March 21. For “Captain America: Brave New World” to be deemed a success, it needs to perform like “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” which saw a healthy drop in ticket sales of only 47% in its second and third weekends. That film ended with $358 million in North America and a remarkable global tally of $845 million.
In contrast, many Marvel films released post-“Endgame” have seen substantial drops. For example, “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” and “Thor: Love and Thunder” experienced declines of 67% in their second weekends. “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” which opened strong with $120 million, fell by a staggering 70%, ultimately failing to reach $500 million globally. Meanwhile, “The Marvels” suffered an even steeper 78% drop.
Bock notes that “Captain America: Brave New World” has potential for staying power, unlike “Ant-Man.” But initial reviews aren’t very promising. The film holds a 51% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and received a disappointing “B-” on CinemaScore. Despite this, there’s hope that the film could attract a broad audience. During its opening weekend, ticket buyers represented diverse demographics: 35% Caucasian, 26% Latino or Hispanic, 23% Black, and 10% Asian. This broad appeal could help it sustain box office momentum.
Interestingly, even with the mixed reviews, the film had a good turnout in premium formats like IMAX and Dolby, which accounted for 44% of its opening sales. These premium tickets help boost overall revenue.
Chris Randleman from Flix Brewhouse shared that despite the lack of stellar reviews, they’re seeing great walk-up business. He also noted that ticket sales might appear misleadingly lower in the following weekends due to the holiday weekend combining Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day.
To enhance quality moving forward, Disney’s CEO Bob Iger has emphasized a shift in focus after previous disappointments with films like “Ant-Man” and “The Marvels.” Iger mentioned that during the pandemic, the company lost focus due to an increase in productions. Looking ahead, Marvel plans to release two more major films this year: “Thunderbolts” in May and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” in July.
With new titles on the horizon, the industry is looking to Marvel for revitalization. According to Bock, no other film is streaming over $100 million in February, making the upcoming releases crucial for the box office this year.
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Captain America: Brave New World
