CNBC Daily Open: Surprising Investor Optimism Amid Negative U.S. News

On October 1, 2025, the U.S. government entered a shutdown. Yet, surprisingly, the stock market soared, with one index reaching a record high. Traders seem to think the shutdown will last about two weeks, which aligns with historical averages since 1990, according to Bank of America.

This response isn’t without precedent. Typically, the S&P 500 tends to rise by around 1% both before and after government shutdowns. Despite a disappointing ADP jobs report, which showed a drop of 32,000 private payrolls in September—well below the expected increase of 45,000—investors remain optimistic.

Normally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics would release an official jobs report, but its current delay means it’s not available for analysis. Economists suggest that if the jobs data continues to look weak, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates in October. Interestingly, market reactions have often been contrary to what one might expect from negative news.

As the S&P 500 closed above 6,700 for the first time, it highlights a disconnect between market perceptions and broader economic sentiments. This raises an important question: What are investors seeing that the rest of us might be missing?

Experts also weigh in on the potential long-term effects of the shutdown. Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at Aberdeen, warns it could undermine U.S. credibility and stability. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., points out that pressure on the dollar could escalate and significantly affect upcoming Fed decisions.

Social media chatter reflects mixed feelings about the shutdown. While some view the market surge as a sign of resilience, others express concerns about economic stability. The overall sentiment is that investors are trying to look past short-term issues to focus on longer-term possibilities.

For more on how such events can impact markets globally, see this CNBC article.

In summary, while the government shutdown poses challenges, the stock market shows a surprising level of confidence, suggesting a deeper complexity in how investors interpret economic signals.

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