Extreme heat in Mexico and Central America has led to over 125 deaths in just one year. But it’s not just a matter of heat; the region is facing erratic weather, swinging between sweltering heat and sudden cold, or heavy rain and drought. These changes are especially noticeable along the border.
These climate fluctuations are partly due to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle that affects Pacific Ocean temperatures. However, climate change is making these swings worse, leading to more extreme weather conditions.
A Closer Look at Drought
The Southwest U.S. and Northwest Mexico are in a severe drought, the worst in over 1,200 years. Climate models predict that, by 2050, average temperatures might rise by 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit, with the greatest increases felt in desert areas. Rainfall is expected to drop by 20%, compounding water shortages.
As drought intensifies, water resources are stretched thin. Water systems are struggling under the pressure of changing weather patterns, while important rivers like the Colorado and Rio Grande are depleting rapidly. Mismanagement and overuse of these water sources are creating challenges for agriculture and livestock. Reports suggest the Colorado River Basin has lost nearly 28 million acre-feet of groundwater since 2005, while the Rio Grande has seen an 85% decrease in its natural flow.
Wetlands, particularly vulnerable, face irreparable damage. Environments like the Tijuana River and Laguna Madre coastal lagoon are at real risk of losing biodiversity.
Contamination Concerns
Pollution is another pressing challenge. In 2022, both the U.S. and Mexico emitted over 5,300 metric tons of CO2, predominantly from the U.S. The Rio Grande continues to suffer from contamination, partly due to untreated wastewater from Nuevo Laredo, Mexico. Similarly, the Tijuana River, flowing from Mexico into California, faces severe pollution challenges, raising alarm among health experts.
Human Rights and Climate Vulnerability
These environmental issues are more than just numbers. They pose significant threats to human rights, especially in border communities already struggling with poverty. Climate change disproportionately affects these populations, and rising temperatures and unpredictable rain patterns could worsen existing inequalities.
Many border cities, such as Tijuana and Nogales, already suffer from inadequate infrastructure. The same goes for rural areas, where marginalized communities find it hard to access water and sewage systems. The result is a compounded risk for vulnerable groups, including migrants.
Migration Trends
Extreme weather is pushing more people to migrate from Mexico to the U.S. Farmers, particularly those without irrigation systems, are heavily affected. Decreasing crop yields can force families to seek better prospects elsewhere.
Migrant workers often face harsh job conditions and health risks. In the U.S., agricultural workers are 20 times more likely to die from heat-related issues compared to other workers. These challenges, combined with strict border policies, further complicate their situations.
Transnational Cooperation Challenges
The two countries have struggled to work together effectively on climate change. The shifting political landscape complicates transboundary cooperation, as both countries have had varied commitments to issues like the Paris Agreement. Recent changes in leadership have led to inconsistency in addressing climate topics.
Despite frameworks like the Border 2025 Program, current measures are often inadequate. The ongoing Colorado River negotiations demonstrate how rising political tensions can hinder water resource management, leaving both nations grappling with climate impacts without a cohesive strategy.
Looking Ahead to 2026
With worsening conditions predicted, the year 2026 presents a pivotal opportunity. Existing agreements governing the Colorado River will end, offering a moment to reinforce binational cooperation. Whether U.S. and Mexico will strengthen ties or drift further apart will depend on their commitment to enforceable solutions and improved data sharing.
Engaging Indigenous communities and utilizing their knowledge will also be crucial in creating sustainable, effective climate responses.
In the face of these challenges, adaptability will be key for communities and governments on both sides of the border. With dedicated effort, there’s hope for better management of resources and improved living conditions for all.
Millie Deere is a freelance journalist.
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