The Colorado River has been facing a severe drought, driven by climate change, for nearly two decades. By 2025, the situation had not improved. Even with near-normal snowpack early in the year, much of that water failed to reach rivers due to inefficient runoff.
As the river’s operating guidelines will end in 2026, the future of water allocation among the seven states that rely on it is uncertain. They missed significant deadlines, including one on November 11, 2025, meant to outline how water usage would be allocated moving forward.
At the Colorado River Water Users Association conference in Las Vegas, the mood was heavy. Attendees expressed frustration over stalled negotiations. “Pessimism and frustration really sum it up,” said Doug Kenney, director of the Western Water Policy Program at the University of Colorado, Boulder. His colleague, Chris Winter, echoed this sentiment, noting the urgency of the crisis in water management as drought conditions worsen.
If the Upper Basin states—Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico—can’t agree with the Lower Basin states—California, Arizona, and Nevada—federal intervention might be necessary. Kenney remarked that this is the first time in his career that many are open to the federal government stepping in to help resolve the issue.
The states must submit a report to the federal government by February 14, 2026. After that, the Bureau of Reclamation will conduct an environmental review. Federal officials are reminding the states of the need for a plan, yet frustrations grow towards the federal response, especially regarding climate change.
Negotiations have been hampered by disagreements. The Lower Basin has committed to significant water cuts, but expects the Upper Basin to share the burden. The Upper Basin argues that they are already facing reductions because of unpredictable water supply.
The Colorado River will undoubtedly influence key elections in 2026. With Governor Jared Polis term-limited, candidates will need clear positions on water management. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, facing re-election, has already begun expressing her resistance to Upper Basin proposals that lack “meaningful, verifiable conservation commitments.”
A recent report titled “Dancing with Deadpool,” co-authored by Kenney, sheds light on the river’s dire circumstances and calls for new approaches. It addresses climate science, agriculture, and governance, highlighting the diminishing safety nets the basin relies on, including groundwater resources that are dwindling fast.
Kenney noted, “The groundwater is in worse shape than the surface water.” He also pointed out that federal resources are being slashed just when they are most needed, adding to the challenge.
The current management of the river, he argues, does not reflect the seriousness of the situation. “We need significant cuts to catch up with the impact of climate change over the last 25 years,” he stressed.
To improve the governance of the Colorado River, Kenney advocates for more transparency and public involvement, rather than secretive negotiations that only bubble up during moments of crisis. He envisions a river commission with staff from all seven states, Mexico, and the tribes that depend on the river. “This is not just a plumbing system; it has cultural and environmental value,” he added.
In conclusion, the struggle over the Colorado River highlights the pressing need for collaborative, innovative solutions for managing one of our most vital resources. As climate change continues to strain supplies, proactive measures must become a top priority for the states and federal government alike.
For more on water management strategies and their implications, check out the detailed analysis in the Dancing with Deadpool report.
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