Confronting Uncertainty: How Climate Change Threatens India’s Blue Economy Future | Policy Circle Insights

India is taking significant steps to fight climate change. A recent report submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change outlined India’s greenhouse gas emissions and its sustainable development efforts. Importantly, the nation has made progress in reducing those emissions, showing its commitment to tackle climate challenges.

The blue economy is crucial for India’s growth. It adds 4% to the country’s GDP, generates $28 billion a year, and supports millions of livelihoods. However, climate change poses serious threats to this sector by harming marine life and decreasing fish stocks.

Impact on the Fishing Industry

India has a vast coastline of 7,517 kilometers, vital for trade and fisheries. Unfortunately, rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification, and pollution have begun to affect fish populations. This disrupts not only the fishing industry but also the economy and the lives of coastal communities.

In Kerala, sardine catches have plummeted by 57% over the last ten years due to rising sea temperatures, which are too high for optimal sardine growth. The Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) links this decline directly to climate change.

Coastal erosion is another urgent issue. In Andhra Pradesh, nearly 29% of its coastline is eroded. Overfishing and the deaths of marine mammals further damage the ecosystem. Tamil Nadu has also seen fish catches drop by 75% in the last 15 years due to changing sea conditions.

In West Bengal, the hilsa fish population is suffering. Catches in local rivers have decreased by 56% from 2002 to 2018. Nearby Bangladesh, however, has seen a surge in its hilsa catch, showcasing regional disparities. In Gujarat, Bombay duck landings fell by 56% from 2017 to 2022. Similarly, in Maharashtra, silver pomfret production has halved over the past 35 years, linking these drops to overfishing and ocean acidification.

Coral Reefs and Ecosystem Health

Coral reefs, critical for marine biodiversity, are also in trouble. Rising temperatures and climatic events like the 2024 El Niño have caused widespread coral bleaching, particularly in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The Indian Coral Reef Monitoring Network noted a 20% decrease in phytoplankton in the Indian Ocean over the last six decades, disrupting the marine food chain.

Overfishing and Pollution Challenges

Overfishing is raising alarm bells about marine biodiversity. On India’s southwest coast, 53% of key fish species are in decline. Pollution from industrial waste further complicates matters. Despite clean-up efforts, the Ganges River remains heavily polluted, leading to dangerous levels of heavy metals in fish, making them unsafe to eat.

Socio-Economic Impacts

Fisheries are vital to India’s economy, contributing significantly to agriculture and providing jobs for around 28 million people. In areas like the Sundarbans, where 80% of the population depends on farming, fishing, and aquaculture, climate change threatens their very existence. Declining fish stocks put food security at risk, especially for rural communities that heavily rely on fishing for their livelihoods.

India stands as the second-largest fish producer globally, supporting over four million fishermen. The coastal economy has great potential for growth. However, threats from climate-related events and habitat destruction put that potential at risk. Coastal tourism, which employs millions, could also suffer unless action is taken to protect marine environments.

Moving Forward: Solutions and Strategies

To address these challenges, India must focus on sustainable fisheries and protecting marine ecosystems. Strong waste management policies are needed to curb pollution. Investments in sustainable tourism and biodiversity initiatives will also be crucial.

The National Centre for Sustainable Coastal Management stresses the importance of these efforts to protect India’s blue economy and coastal livelihoods. Sustainable fishing practices and ecosystem protection are key to mitigating the impacts of climate change. Additionally, long-term investment in technology, education, and policy change is essential for resilience.

India has an important opportunity to align climate action with economic sustainability. By making proactive changes, the country can safeguard its blue economy while staying committed to global climate goals.

The authors are teaching fellows at the Department of Economics, KREA University, Sricity, AP.