It’s been 30 years since the first COP talks, and as climate data worsens, many are questioning their effectiveness. This year, around 40,000 people are gathering in Belém, Brazil, the site of the iconic Rio Earth Summit from 1992. Back then, it was a huge event, setting ambitious goals for a greener future.
The Rio summit led to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the foundation for the COP process. Michael Howard, the UK’s former environment secretary, spoke of the optimism surrounding that time, believing it could lead to real change. However, despite 29 COP meetings since then, global greenhouse gas emissions have surged by 65% since 1990.
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aimed to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet, just a decade later, we’re already at 1.4°C. Ban Ki-moon, the former UN leader, described the agreement as a triumph but noted that the subsequent actions of countries have varied greatly. Some nations have acted vigorously, while others have lagged behind.
Climate change has intensified, leading to disasters like Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean, which struck shortly before COP30. In 2024, climate-related damage cost the world around £1 trillion, largely due to the increased frequency and severity of such events, according to BloombergNEF.
Despite criticisms, COPs have had successes. Before the Paris Agreement, projections suggested a potential rise in temperatures of about 4°C by century’s end. Now, estimates have improved slightly to 2.8°C. This change, though still alarming, indicates some progress. The agreement also prompted a rise in renewable energy use, which now accounts for more electricity than coal for the first time.
Yet, many feel that progress remains insufficient. Ian Hall, a climate professor, emphasized the need for urgent action to avoid catastrophic consequences if temperatures rise further. He warned that a 2.8°C increase could lead to severe ice melt and mass migrations.
As climate crises worsen, leaders like Surangel Whipps Jr., president of the Pacific island nation Palau, highlight the immediate risks they face from rising seas and extreme weather. Laurie Laybourn, head of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, called for COPs to focus more on resilience strategies to combat escalating dangers.
Last year’s COP revealed deep-rooted skepticism among some experts. A letter signed by prominent climate figures stated that the conferences had become ineffective, bogged down by fossil fuel interests and slow progress. Johan Rockstrom, a climate scientist, called for accountability over grand statements.
Meanwhile, some experts are losing faith in the COP process. Dr. Jennifer Allan expressed concern that the meetings feel detached from reality, driven by repetitive discussions void of meaningful outcomes. In response, UN climate chief Simon Stiell is seeking reforms while keeping all nations involved.
The context of COP talks has changed significantly since the 1990s, marked by increased global conflicts and rising defense spending. The urgent need to address climate change amidst these challenges raises questions about international cooperation. COP30 might struggle to present itself as a success, but it still serves as a crucial platform for many nations that require a voice, especially vulnerable nations that are disproportionately affected by climate change.
Despite challenges, leaders from affected countries defend the COP process, emphasizing its importance in holding major economies accountable. They believe their participation is vital in ensuring that the voices of the most vulnerable are heard, aiming to create a future where every nation, no matter how small, can contribute to global efforts against climate change.
(c) Sky News 2025: COP30: Are climate summits saving the world – or just hot air?
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