Could a Nuclear War Threaten Bitcoin’s Survival? AI Reveals Crypto’s Fate in a Doomsday Scenario

Bitcoin (BTC) has become a focal point for many, especially those who view it as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability. But what would happen to Bitcoin if a nuclear war escalated?

Prominent figures, including Mexico’s richest man, Ricardo Salinas, and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, endorse BTC and cryptocurrencies for their potential safety during turbulent times. BlackRock even suggests Bitcoin might serve as a better hedge than gold. Despite this optimism, growing concerns about Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of catastrophic events loom.

Bitcoin’s Network and Nuclear Threats

Understanding Bitcoin requires knowing how its network operates. As of mid-2025, there are around 22,129 reachable nodes worldwide, facilitating secure transactions. According to public data, the U.S. controls 10.2% of these nodes, Germany follows with 5.8%, and France holds 2.6%. Interestingly, much of the remaining 64% is unaccounted for, with speculation that many are operated from China after bans on mining.

If a nuclear event were to occur, the consequences for Bitcoin could be severe. If only 1,000 nodes remain active, the entire network could fail, disrupting transaction systems. Major conflicts that impact infrastructure could lead to widespread online outages, seriously harming Bitcoin’s viability.

Potential Scenarios and Impact on Bitcoin

1. Localized Conflicts: During a confined war, like the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin may showcase resilience, as its value previously remained above $100K through current turmoil. Analysts like Bitwise’s Head of Alpha Strategies argue that Bitcoin’s very purpose is to act as a safe haven during geopolitical strife.

2. Regional Nuclear Conflicts: If a nuclear war were to erupt regionally, Bitcoin’s price could plummet by 30-60%, potentially falling to between $75K and $42K. This drop could occur as nodes go offline and transaction capabilities degrade.

3. Global Nuclear Escalation: In a scenario where multiple countries are involved in a nuclear exchange, forecasts predict a catastrophic price drop of 60-80%. This could see Bitcoin crashing to anywhere between $20K and $42K. Though this loss might present an enticing opportunity for future investors, the reality of such an event would likely render the currency moot without the internet to support its network.

Expert Insights and Data

Experts note that Bitcoin’s value hinges not just on technological performance but also on market psychology. ChatGPT forecasts that sentiment could play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s price amid conflict. The digital currency operates on a decentralized network, which could be a significant advantage during unstable times—provided enough nodes remain active.

According to recent statistics, there remains an 18% chance of a nuclear bomb detonation occurring in 2025, based on predictive markets. While the risk seems low, the potential for severe economic fallout keeps Bitcoin’s role as a hedge under scrutiny.

Conclusion

In short, Bitcoin’s future during a nuclear crisis is unpredictable. It could either solidify itself as a digital lifeline or face catastrophic failure. One thing is clear: while Bitcoin might offer some financial security now, it could become irrelevant in an all-encompassing global disaster. As we navigate these complexities, it’s essential to keep our eyes on the geopolitical landscape and the evolving nature of cryptocurrencies.

For further details on Bitcoin’s infrastructure and statistics, you can explore resources such as Bitnodes and predictive markets like Polymarket.

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