Could Asteroid 2024 YR4 Collide with Earth in 7 Years? Discover the Potential Impact and Our Preparedness Efforts | CNN

An asteroid named 2024 YR4 has a small chance—about 2%—of hitting Earth in 2032. Scientists are keeping a close eye on it to learn more, especially as they prepare to use the powerful James Webb Space Telescope.

We don’t know a lot about 2024 YR4 yet. It’s estimated to be between 131 and 295 feet wide, which is about the size of a large building, according to Dr. Paul Chodas from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. While this asteroid is much smaller than the one that caused the dinosaurs’ extinction 66 million years ago, which was about 6.2 miles wide, it still poses a risk. Larger asteroids can be devastating, but even smaller ones can cause serious regional damage if they are on a collision course with Earth.

Understanding 2024 YR4’s path will help scientists figure out if it’s likely to hit our planet. They only have until April to observe it before it becomes too faint. The Webb telescope, expected to begin observations soon, can measure the heat the asteroid reflects, giving a better estimate of its size.

The asteroid was first spotted by the ATLAS telescope in Chile last December. Scientists have tracked it using multiple telescopes, and while it’s over 30 million miles away now, it is moving farther from us. Telescopes in Hawaii, including Pan-STARRS, are also monitoring its path.

After the Webb telescope captures its data in March, there will be follow-up observations in May. This information will help finalize its orbit and temperature. If the asteroid disappears from view, it will remain a concern until it reappears in 2028, but it’s predicted not to be a threat then.

Determining 2024 YR4’s size is critical for assessing risk. If it turns out to be on the larger end of estimates, an impact could cause severe damage within a 31-mile radius. The speed at which it would enter the atmosphere—around 38,000 miles per hour—would further increase potential damage.

Historically, Earth has seen its share of asteroid impacts. In 1908, a relatively small asteroid exploded over Siberia, leveling trees across a vast area. More recently, a smaller asteroid exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, injuring over a thousand people.

Scientists are finding many near-Earth objects each year, but 2024 YR4 presents challenges due to its size and darkness. Experts believe around 600,000 such objects exist, but only a small fraction have been detected.

Monitoring asteroids is crucial. While tiny ones frequently burn up in the atmosphere, larger ones are less common but can cause significant destruction. Researchers continue to scan the skies to ensure we stay ahead of potential threats.