A recent report from the Department of Energy claimed that rising carbon dioxide (CO2) could actually help farmers produce more food. But this view is being challenged. Most climate experts argue that climate change will likely cause food to become scarcer and more expensive.
The report, created under the Trump administration, suggested that increased CO2 levels are beneficial. However, it was criticized and eventually disbanded for lacking transparency and credibility. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) referred to this document when trying to overturn prior conclusions that carbon pollution is harmful to health and agriculture.
Experts pointed out that while plants use CO2 to grow, the reality is more complicated. Increased CO2 leads to climate change, which causes extreme weather—think heatwaves, droughts, and floods—that stress crops. Recent studies, including a 2020 analysis of FACE experiments, showed that any growth benefits from higher CO2 levels decrease significantly under stress from extreme weather. A majority of scientific literature indicates that climate change will actually lower crop yields, making food more expensive for everyone.
Farmers can adapt by changing crops or practices, but a study published in June 2025 estimated that every 1°C increase in global temperatures could cut crop yields by about 4.4% of daily calorie intake. This could stretch an already strained food supply.
Interestingly, due to climate impacts, more land has been converted to agriculture than necessary. Research shows that nearly 200 million acres have been turned into cropland, which has also added to carbon in the atmosphere, perpetuating the cycle of climate change.
As food supplies dwindle and demand remains steady, prices are likely to rise. A report from 2024 suggested annual food inflation could rise by 1-3% due to climate-related changes. And compounding weather events, like simultaneous heat waves and droughts, have severely impacted crop yields in places like India and the U.S. These events have led to significant economic losses, including $27 billion in crop insurance claims over the past 30 years.
In short, while CO2 may help in controlled environments, the extreme weather caused by climate change outweighs any potential benefits in real-world farming conditions. In fact, climate change is expected to continue threatening agricultural productivity and escalating food prices until we can stabilize global temperatures by reaching net-zero carbon emissions.
For more detailed insights into the impact of climate change on agriculture, you can explore additional resources from the National Academies of Sciences.
