India’s imports of Russian oil are slowing down, marking the lowest levels in three years. This trend is largely due to tighter U.S. sanctions affecting the trade between India and Russia. Recent reports suggest that December’s deliveries could average around 1.1 million barrels per day, the lowest since November 2022, despite some refiners trying to buy cheaper Russian oil.
### What’s Happening?
Data shows a notable decline in oil shipments in December. Many refiners, including state-owned companies like Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum, are adjusting their strategies based on regulatory pressures. While demand hasn’t collapsed, it has softened, particularly due to growing scrutiny from the U.S. This has led to fluctuating procurement patterns among different buyers.
One significant factor playing into this is Reliance Industries, India’s biggest private refiner. They halted their Russian oil purchases after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in late October. Although they are now sourcing from other non-sanctioned suppliers, this caused a noticeable dip in imports.
### Recent Trends
In December, Russian oil deliveries to India hit a low of 712,000 barrels a day during the second week before picking up slightly later on. Kpler estimates showed that November imports were around 1.8 million barrels daily, while Indian officials expected only about 800,000 barrels for December.
Interestingly, several refineries, such as HPCL-Mittal and Mangalore, didn’t bring in any Russian oil this month, marking the first such occurrence since September 2022.
### Looking Forward
There are whispers of recovery on the horizon. Nayara Energy, linked to Rosneft and facing its own sanctions, plans to delay maintenance at its Vadinar refinery, which could increase Russian oil processing once the disruptions ease.
Overall, these changes suggest that while the trade is adapting to new sanctions, there is still potential for continued Russian oil supply in India, especially as refiners navigate this complex landscape.
Recent social media discussions indicate mixed reactions from users, with some expressing concern over dependency on Russian oil, while others note the financial benefits of purchasing it at discounted rates.
For those interested in further details about the impact of sanctions on global oil markets, the U.S. Energy Information Administration provides comprehensive reports.
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