Don’t Miss the Once-in-5000-Years Lunar Collision: How This Catastrophic Event Could Light Up Our Night Sky!

In 2032, a fascinating event might occur when asteroid 2024 YR4 could collide with the Moon. This would be a rare event—something that happens once every 5,000 years. Discovered in December 2024, it sparked initial worries about its threat to Earth. Early estimates gave it a 1% chance of hitting our planet, but that risk has now dropped to just 0.004%. The Moon, however, is at greater risk, with NASA estimating a 4.3% chance of impact. A study from the University of Western Ontario explores what such a collision could mean, including how it might challenge space safety. The findings are available on arXiv.

2024 YR4 is on a path that could bring it close to both Earth and the Moon. The focus has shifted from Earth to the Moon because of updated observations. According to planetary scientist Dr. Andrew Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University, the chance of an impact on the Moon has increased. Previously, the asteroid’s path moved it away from Earth but closer to the Moon. “There’s almost a 4% chance it’s going to hit the Moon. If it does, it would be quite a show!” he remarked to IFLScience.

If 2024 YR4 strikes the Moon, the impact could be massive—one of the largest in 5,000 years. Research by physicist Paul Wiegert indicates that the explosion would release energy equivalent to 6.5 megatons of TNT, creating a crater about 1 kilometer (0.62 miles) wide. This event could eject around 108 kg of lunar material, possibly causing a meteor shower visible from Earth. However, where it lands is crucial for visibility. “It’s a chance to see new lunar meteorites, but nothing dangerous,” said Richard Moissl from the European Space Agency.

The potential debris from a lunar impact poses risks to satellites and spacecraft orbiting Earth. Ejected material could travel at such high speeds that it might increase meteor impacts on our satellites. Wiegert’s study highlights that lunar ejecta could raise impact rates as much as 1,000 times the normal background meteor rate. This underscores new concerns in planetary defense for both Earth and objects in nearby space.

Currently, 2024 YR4 is still far from Earth, making precise observations difficult. However, in 2028, it will return to our vicinity, allowing NASA to take better measurements. While the chance of impact remains low, scientists are gearing up to monitor any possibility of a collision with the Moon closely. Wiegert notes that the visibility of the impact depends significantly on where it occurs on the Moon: “If it hits the side facing Earth, there might be a bright flash and a dust cloud that disperses quickly.” Spacecraft in orbit would capture a clearer view, making this a valuable opportunity for research.

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