A piece of a Soviet spacecraft is expected to crash back to Earth this weekend, but experts are uncertain about where it will land. This spacecraft, called Kosmos 482, was launched in March 1972. It was meant to explore Venus but never made it out of low Earth orbit. Instead, it broke into four pieces.
The lander probe is now making its way back down. According to Marek Ziebart, a space geodesy professor at University College London, this situation is unusual. Most satellites burn up upon re-entering the atmosphere due to friction. However, Kosmos 482 was built to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus, including extreme heat and acidity. Ziebart explains, “Anything we send to Venus has to be armor-plated.”
This robust design means the probe may survive its descent through Earth’s atmosphere. Ziebart estimates that it weighs about 500 kg and is roughly a meter wide, which increases its chances of survival.
Interestingly, some pieces of Kosmos 482 have already touched down on Earth. After its launch, components landed in New Zealand. NASA has noted that while the lander probe was equipped with a heat shield and parachute, their effectiveness may have diminished over the years.
As Kosmos 482 descends, the precise timing of its crash remains unclear. NASA predicts it could re-enter the atmosphere between May 9 and May 10. Its crash site is still a mystery, but NASA believes it could land anywhere from 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south. This broad area includes parts of Europe, the UK, the Americas, Africa, and Australia. Ziebart mentioned, “It’s not likely to hit the poles.”
While NASA anticipates gaining more accurate information soon, uncertainty will linger until the moment of re-entry. Ziebart emphasized the uncontrolled nature of this descent, stating, “We can’t influence where it comes down, but we can track it using telescopes and radar.” However, successful tracking depends on adequate radar coverage in the area.
Given the probe’s weight and speed, Ziebart warns it has the potential for significant impact energy. Yet, he reassures that since water covers about 72% of our planet, it’s more likely to land in the ocean than anywhere populated.
In recent years, satellites re-entering the atmosphere without being carefully controlled has raised concerns. A similar incident occurred in 2021 when a piece of China’s Long March 5B rocket crashed into the Indian Ocean. It became a topic of discussion on social media platforms, with many expressing worry over the dangers posed by uncontrolled space debris.
The growing amount of space junk serves as a reminder of our responsibility to manage space travel better, as experts predict that such re-entry events will become more frequent. According to a study by the European Space Agency, the number of pieces of space debris in low Earth orbit has reached over 36,500, highlighting the need for better management and cleanup strategies.
For more in-depth information on tracking space debris, you can visit NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office.