Drought and Climate Change Drive Caspian Sea to Historic Low: What It Means for the Future

August 12 is the International Day of the Caspian Sea, also known as the Day for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea. This day has been observed since 2006, a year after the Framework Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea went into effect. This agreement was shaped by experts from the littoral states with help from the UN Environment Programme. The treaty was signed on November 4, 2003, after years of negotiations.

The Tehran Convention is designed to protect the Caspian Sea from pollution and to safeguard its ecological balance. It also promotes the sustainable use of the Caspian’s biological resources and supports ecological monitoring and research. When ratified, the convention officially took effect on August 12, making it a significant date for environmental awareness in the region.

Since the convention’s adoption, the Caspian Sea has faced serious threats from climate change. Coastal communities are experiencing extreme weather, major sea level changes, and other challenges like flooding and droughts. For instance, recent data shows that from 2020 to 2023, the sea level in the Azerbaijani sector dropped by 75 centimeters, leading to alarming predictions for the future.

Historically, the Caspian Sea’s water levels have fluctuated significantly. Measurements dating back to 1840 show the highest level in 1882 at −25.2 meters and the lowest in 1977 at −29.0 meters. These changes have been tied to various factors, including rainfall, river inflows, and human activities. Notably, inflow from the Volga River has been a major contributor, affecting about 64% of level changes, with evaporation accounting for a significant portion as well.

The connection between climate change and sea level fluctuations is evident. Between 1980 and 2020, average air temperatures in the region rose steadily, contributing to increased evaporation. This raises concerns, especially given that three of the past decades have seen significant shifts in sea levels.

Recently, in November, Azerbaijan played host to the 29th session of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29). This conference included important discussions on the Caspian Sea’s challenges, resulting in a declaration for cooperative efforts to address the declining sea level. Experts emphasize that addressing these environmental issues collaboratively is crucial for the future health of the Caspian Sea.

The Caspian Sea is more than just a body of water; it’s a vital ecosystem that many rely on for their livelihoods. Recognizing the issues it faces and actively working towards solutions is essential for sustainable development in the region.

For more information on environmental challenges and international cooperation, you can read reports from the UN Environment Programme.

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