Weather scientists are closely monitoring the potential for an El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean later this year. This event could push global temperatures to new highs, potentially breaking records in 2027.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from the U.S. and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have both indicated that while some climate models predict an El Niño, there’s still a lot of uncertainty involved in these forecasts. Experts suggest that it’s too early to say for sure, but there are signs, like warmer sea surface temperatures, that an El Niño could form by 2026.
El Niño, part of a climate cycle called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is known to cause extreme weather around the globe. When the eastern Pacific Ocean warms, it can lead to higher global temperatures and drier conditions in places like Australia.
According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, models predict the possibility of El Niño conditions developing as early as June. However, they warn that this prediction is still quite uncertain. NOAA has echoed this sentiment, noting that while the chances for El Niño are increasing, key models remain inconsistent.
Dr. Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist, explained that there’s a significant amount of warm water currently stored in the western Pacific. As trade winds weaken, this warm water tends to move east, leading to warming near the South American coast. He mentioned that the signals for this to happen are there, but it’s too soon to confirm an El Niño’s development.
Andrea Taschetto, also a climate expert, noted that the current La Niña event—characterized by cooler waters near Australia—is winding down. She estimates the odds for El Niño or neutral conditions during June to August are about 50/50, like flipping a coin.
In the last three years, we’ve seen some of the hottest temperatures on record. Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist with Berkeley Earth, pointed out that a previous minor El Niño event in 2023 raised global temperatures by about 0.12C. Should a stronger El Niño materialize this year, it’s likely to peak from November to January, significantly affecting global temperatures in 2027.
Both Dr. Watkins and Dr. Hausfather agree that if an El Niño develops, it’s likely that 2027 will set new temperature records. Watkins warned that climate change from human activities is so severe that it overshadows natural climate fluctuations. He doesn’t foresee many surprises anymore, suggesting that even a moderate El Niño may not be necessary to see rising temperatures.
For further reading on environmental impacts from climate phenomena, you can explore the Bureau of Meteorology’s detailed outlooks.
