HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — China is rapidly shifting from diesel to electric trucks, and this change could have a big impact on global fuel demand and heavy transportation.
Just a few years ago, in 2020, nearly all new trucks in China were diesel-powered. Fast forward to the first half of 2025, and electric trucks are projected to make up 22% of new sales, up from 9.2% in 2024. A forecast from BMI suggests that by this year, electric trucks could claim up to 46% of new heavy truck sales, and jump to 60% next year.
Heavy trucks are crucial for economies, but they also contribute significantly to carbon emissions. In 2019, road freight was responsible for about a third of all transport-related CO2 emissions. Decarbonizing this sector has been tricky. Electric trucks with large batteries can carry less cargo compared to their diesel counterparts, and some expect liquefied natural gas (LNG) to be a cleaner alternative while electric technology develops.
LNG, which is natural gas cooled to a liquid, has been seen as a less polluting option. However, the landscape is changing. Christopher Doleman, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, mentions that diesel use in China could drop sooner than anticipated, given the rise of electric trucks.
Costs and Incentives for Electric Trucks
The shift towards electric trucks is becoming more affordable. Sales of electric trucks in China have tripled in a year—as prices have decreased—leading to a situation where electric models are outselling LNG trucks. Electric trucks are still more expensive initially, costing about 18% more than LNG trucks, but they offer savings of 10% to 26% over their lifetime due to greater energy efficiency.
Government incentives play a big role. For instance, a program allows truck owners to trade in older vehicles for up to $19,000 when purchasing newer electric models. China’s development of charging infrastructure is also critical. Major logistics hubs are adding charging stations along freight routes, making it easier for drivers to transition.
The Global Impact
The rise in electric truck sales is not just a domestic issue; it could reshape global energy markets. Diesel consumption in China saw a notable decline recently, reflecting this shift. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, diesel use fell to 3.9 million barrels per day in June 2024, marking an 11% decrease year-over-year. Tim Daiss from APAC Energy Consultancy emphasizes that this transition is a vital yet underreported chapter of the global energy change.
While LNG demand may rise in the short term, Doleman views it mainly as a transitional phase. China’s extensive pipeline infrastructure and its own gas production favor LNG trucking, unlike many other countries.
China is also tightening vehicle emission regulations, enhancing the urgency for companies reliant on fossil fuels. A study from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) found that LNG trucks may slightly reduce emissions over the long term but can be more harmful in the short term due to methane leakage.
Asia’s Electric Truck Market
China isn’t just focusing on its domestic market; it has ambitions in the global electric truck arena. The country, already a leader in passenger car exports, is eyeing heavy-duty electric trucks. Between 2021 and 2023, exports of Chinese heavy-duty trucks to the Middle East and North Africa surged by 73% annually, with Latin America seeing a 46% increase.
Companies like Sany Heavy Industry plan to export electric trucks to Europe starting in 2026. Additionally, BYD is opening up a new factory in Hungary to meet European carbon-cutting targets.
As electric truck technology advances, the market for zero-emission vehicles will likely grow. However, challenges remain—especially regarding charging infrastructure in target markets. According to McKinsey, prices of electric trucks in Europe need to drop significantly to compete with diesel options.
This evolving landscape shows how fast the world of heavy transport is changing, with China leading the charge towards a more sustainable future.
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Transportation technology, Transportation and shipping, Transportation, China, Electric vehicles, General news, International News, Asia Pacific, Europe, Climate and environment, Christopher Doleman, Business, Beijing, Tim Daiss, India, World news, South America, Climate, World News
