Sunspot region 4168 is making headlines! Recently, it unleashed three M-class solar flares in just one day, breaking a quiet spell on the sun. On August 5, it produced a notable M4.4 flare, peaking at 11:58 a.m. EDT and sending a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. While this flare originated from near the center of the sun’s disk—a spot typically aimed at Earth—it had a surprising twist.
Instead of heading straight for us, the CME veered sideways, projecting most of its solar material westward. However, experts caution that we might still experience a minor impact on August 8, which could spark auroras visible as far south as northern Michigan and Maine. The chance of geomagnetic storms can bring out the northern lights, captivating those lucky enough to witness them.
Aurora chaser Jure Atanackov noted, “This is just Solar Cycle 25 behavior.” He highlights that even though the CME initially aimed away from Earth, there’s still potential for a glancing blow. NASA’s WSA-ENLIL model indicates a possible impact around 2:00 a.m. EDT on August 8, with an error margin of ±8 hours.
The U.K. Met Office corroborates this, stating that, given the sunspot’s position, an Earth-directed component is possible, though confidence in this prediction remains low. A recent survey indicated that over 60% of astronomy enthusiasts are eager to catch sight of these auroras, showcasing the excitement surrounding such space weather events.
If the CME does graze Earth, the viewing of auroras will depend on the storm’s magnetic orientation. For auroras to form, the CME’s magnetic field needs to point southward, allowing it to connect with Earth’s magnetic field. If it points north, the solar wind may skip past us, leaving the skies dark.
As we wait to see what unfolds, sun enthusiasts are buzzing with anticipation. Keep your eyes to the sky for potential cosmic fireworks!
