Experts Warn: Are We Evolving into an Authoritarian State? Insights from Hundreds of Scholars

Are We Heading Towards Authoritarianism?

Recent surveys of political science experts raise serious concerns about the state of democracy in the United States. The Bright Line Watch survey, which involved over 500 political scientists, reveals that many believe the U.S. is moving away from liberal democracy and inching closer to authoritarianism.

In this survey, scholars rated American democracy, and the results were alarming. After Donald Trump’s election in November, they scored democracy at 67 out of 100. By February, shortly into Trump’s second term, that score dropped to just 55. John Carey, a government professor at Dartmouth and co-director of Bright Line Watch, noted, "That’s a drastic drop. There’s consensus we’re moving in the wrong direction."

The survey considers various factors such as press interference, punishment for political opponents, and how well the legislature and judiciary can check executive power. Many experts, particularly those focused on democracy, express concern about Trump’s rapid attempts to strengthen executive power.

Steven Levitsky, a Harvard political science professor, describes the situation as a shift towards "competitive authoritarianism." This term refers to a system where elections occur, but the playing field is significantly tilted in favor of the ruling party. For instance, leaders may fill key government positions with loyalists while attacking opposing media and civil organizations.

Historically, we can draw parallels to countries like Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán has successfully used these tactics to tighten his grip on power, raising concerns among scholars that similar methods could be gaining traction in the U.S.

However, not all scholars agree. Some, like James Campbell from the University at Buffalo, argue that Trump’s actions are legitimate attempts to address long-standing issues, such as manufacturing job losses due to globalization. Campbell suggests that political bias might influence perceptions of Trump’s presidency, challenging the view that he’s veering towards autocracy.

Still, many experts caution about the dangers of suppressing dissent. Under Trump, public opposition may come with repercussions, as indicated by reports of individuals fearing for their jobs or funding if they criticize the administration.

Kurt Weyland, a political scientist at the University of Texas, believes that while Trump shows authoritarian tendencies, the U.S. system is resilient. He points out that unlike leaders with overwhelming public support—such as Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez—Trump lacks such backing. Recent polls show his approval rating at about 43%, suggesting a significant difference in political circumstances.

As the Bright Line Watch prepares for its next survey, many expect that democracy’s score will decrease even further. The ongoing debates among scholars highlight the complexity of the current political landscape and the importance of vigilance in protecting democratic principles. For further details, consider looking into Bright Line Watch’s metrics on democracy here.

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