By Peter Engelke, Greg Lindsay, and Paul Saffo
Imagine three different worlds in 2035. Experts from the Atlantic Council explored how trends in geopolitics, economy, environment, and technology might blend in the future. These aren’t predictions but rather scenarios to make us think about where we might be headed. The goal is to inspire fresh ideas and awareness of possibilities that may not align with our current beliefs.
Consider how choices made today could shape the world a decade from now. What we do—or don’t do—can lead to entirely different futures.
Navigating the International Landscape
In 2035, global governance is trickier than ever. We face severe challenges, but the world is managing, particularly after a near disaster involving a bioweapon-inspired pandemic a few years back.
The current situation is often called the “Reluctant International Order.” We’re not in a golden age of cooperation, but thankfully, it’s not an outright chaotic battle for survival either.
What hasn’t happened is the complete collapse of the rules-based international order (RBIO). While many longed for it to be revitalized, what we’ve got is a mixed bag. The RBIO, created after 1945, brought some benefits and maintained norms like human rights and non-aggression, but many countries remain dissatisfied with it.
China and Russia, two significant players, openly challenge parts of this order for their own interests. Meanwhile, nations like India and Brazil voice their frustrations, calling the RBIO unrepresentative and hypocritical at times.
Timely Adaptations
Despite these challenges, the RBIO has proven resilient. Factions like the “axis of aggressors,” which includes nations like North Korea and Iran, have not united effectively against the West. Instead, countries have continued to seek cooperation to address mutual problems.
The interplay between China and the U.S. most notably reveals that, despite tensions, both sides prefer coexistence over conflict. For example, they have teamed up on nuclear nonproliferation issues with Iran.
Shifting Trade Dynamics
Amidst all this, trade remains a focal point. Nations are cautiously cautious yet actively exploring free trade agreements. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is one example where countries are working to improve economic ties, showcasing a shift towards regional partnerships.
The narrative around trade has changed; while some countries initially reacted against globalization, many have since realized the importance of economic engagement. This evolution signifies a recognition that connectivity often brings more benefits than costs.
Lessons from a Crisis
One critical moment underscoring the necessity for cooperation was the 2029 bioweapon scare. Averted thanks to global intelligence sharing, it pushed nations to collaborate more on public health and biotechnology regulations, demonstrating the value of unified efforts amidst crisis.
China’s Rising Influence
As we step into 2035, the world centers increasingly around China. Beijing holds more sway than any other nation, reshaping institutions to reflect its preferences. This shift has come partially due to the United States’ withdrawal from international engagement.
US leaders have grappled with internal issues, which has diluted their commitment to global leadership. This has freed space for China to rise as a dominant force, supported by its robust economy and active global outreach.
Global Reactions
The shift in power dynamics has left US allies uneasy. Many nations in Asia are re-evaluating their security strategies, with Japan and South Korea exploring their nuclear capabilities to deter China and North Korea. In Europe, countries are ramping up defense spending amid fears of Russian aggression, as China’s military prowess grows.
A Changing Climate
The climate in 2035 is harsher than ever. Global warming exacerbates natural disasters, fueling unrest and complicating problem-solving worldwide. Many communities are now struggling with the impact of climate change, leading to an increase in migration and tension.
Migration Patterns
An estimated 150 million individuals are now climate migrants, highlighting the dire necessity for policies that address these movements. These shifts often come with fears of crime and chaos, muddling the narrative around climate displacement.
Transformations Ahead
While challenges abound, some positive trends are visible. Renewable energy sources are gaining ground, and new technologies are emerging. Yet, efforts to decarbonize remain urgent and insufficient, with old infrastructures hindering rapid change.
As we navigate through these turbulent changes, humanity grapples with balancing immediate needs and long-term sustainability. The road ahead will demand innovative thinking and collective effort to address the pressing challenges of our time.
