Key Findings
This brief explores how environmental changes, especially climate issues, drive conflict and migration in Kenya. It is based on interviews with 1,067 Somali and Ethiopian refugees and migrants who experienced climate changes like floods and droughts. These interviews took place in northern and eastern counties of Kenya (Garissa, Marsabit, and Mandera) between April and May 2025.
- Most surveyed individuals moved due to ongoing environmental issues, particularly drought. While flooding affected 26% of respondents, a significant 89% cited prolonged drought as their main reason for leaving.
- Survival prompts migration. Among those displaced by drought (n=957), 76% lost livestock, while 63% faced crop failure. Many people waited up to two years, depleting their resources before deciding to leave. Community connections also played a crucial role in their decisions.
- Staying behind can indicate severe vulnerability. Among those whose household members stayed back (n=227), 77% did so to care for land, while 70% tended to livestock, and 48% had caregiving duties.
- Climate stress intensifies conflict and poverty. Environmental changes aggravate existing issues like armed conflict. Of those who felt climate factors contributed to their displacement (n=256), 70% cited armed conflict and terrorism, while 56% mentioned political unrest.
- Cross-border migrants face significant risks. Many endure hardships during their journey, including abuse. Among those who reported harm (n=378), 57% faced physical violence, while 35% experienced sexual violence and 56% were victims of extortion. For children (n=735), risks included injury (67%) and even death (30%).
- Humanitarian needs remain urgent in Kenya. About one in four migrants didn’t get crucial support during their journey. At displacement hubs like Dadaab and Mandera, 77% had unmet needs for food and shelter, while 68% needed medical care. Alarmingly, 91% of respondents reported needing assistance at the time of the interviews.
- Smugglers exploit vulnerabilities. The lack of formal support and legal migration paths has led many to rely on smugglers for basic needs like food and medicine. This increases the risk of exploitation and trafficking.
- Early warning systems for climate risks are lacking. Less than half of those surveyed (45%) had access to such systems, often relying on traditional knowledge or NGOs. Even when warnings were issued (n=478), 19% took no action due to a lack of resources.
- Climate adaptation is insufficient. Communities are trying to adjust their farming and income strategies, but many fail. Over 50% of those who switched crops (n=418) or livestock (n=407) experienced total losses, highlighting the urgent need for improved climate-resilient infrastructure and social support.
Research shows a strong link between climate change and migration trends. A recent study indicated that global migration due to environmental factors has nearly doubled in the last decade. It’s essential to recognize that the challenges faced by these communities are not isolated; they reflect broader global issues of climate justice and resource management.
As we look at historical comparisons, communities have always adapted to their environments. However, the rapid pace of climate change today is unprecedented. The lessons from the past remind us that proactive measures are necessary to prevent future crises.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policy-makers and humanitarian organizations. Addressing the root causes of displacement can lead to a more effective response, helping those affected by climate change find stability in both their lives and their communities.
For more detailed information, review the reports from trusted sources like the UNHCR and consider the implications of these findings on future humanitarian efforts.
