In February 2023, there were whispers about CIA chief William Burns visiting Colombo, but neither the US nor Sri Lanka confirmed it. The political climate in Sri Lanka was already tense, especially after the dramatic ousting of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022 during a movement called “Aragalaya.”
Asanga Abeyagoonasekera’s book, Winds of Change, sheds light on the events leading to this political upheaval. Rajapaksa, who won the presidential election in November 2019 amidst rising terror fears from the Easter Sunday attacks, faced immense pressure due to an economic crisis. This crisis, exacerbated by declining remittances and foreign intervention, led many to question whether the government could have sought help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier.
Abeyagoonasekera’s exploration of Rajapaksa’s fall provides a fresh perspective, intertwining local politics with global forces. His insight into a meeting in April 2019 reveals India’s dominance as it pressed Sri Lanka to prioritize its interests, warning against engaging with China over crucial projects. This set a critical backdrop as the country faced tumultuous changes.
Interestingly, Rajapaksa believes he was a victim of a foreign conspiracy. He hinted at the CIA’s involvement in his departure, as noted in his memoir, The Conspiracy to Oust Me from Presidency. However, he refrained from naming specific individuals behind this alleged scheme, casting a shadow over his narrative. His claims warrant further examination, especially in light of India’s role in regional politics, where some experts argue that New Delhi might have played a part in his exit.
Abeyagoonasekera’s analysis is particularly compelling because it dives deep into the context of Sri Lanka’s external relationships. India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) reportedly tried to influence outcomes during Rajapaksa’s presidency, raising questions about how foreign powers can shape domestic politics.
The author reflects on the broader struggles within South Asia, noting that the military’s siding with protests often signals a government’s vulnerability. Echoing this sentiment, he discusses parallels between Rajapaksa’s removal and political turbulence in neighboring Bangladesh. It’s a stark reminder that even governments with a strong parliamentary majority can face immense external pressure.
Additionally, Winds of Change offers a careful examination of the current Sri Lankan government’s alignment with US and Indian interests, especially as they navigate their debt crisis and the influence of China. The ongoing geopolitical tensions suggest that small nations like Sri Lanka must tread carefully amidst larger powers with competing agendas.
In short, Abeyagoonasekera’s work is more than a historical account; it’s a cautionary tale about the intricate dance of power, influence, and the vulnerable state of smaller nations. As Sri Lanka continues to grapple with its identity and independence, understanding these dynamics is key for its future.
For deeper insights, check out Abeyagoonasekera’s Winds of Change available at Vijitha Yapa and Sarasavi.
