Facing Pressure from Israel: Iran’s Supreme Leader Confronts a Critical Decision

CAIRO (AP) — Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, faces his toughest challenge yet. Once seen as a strong figure, he now has Israel targeting his military leadership and nuclear program. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has even stated that Khamenei “cannot continue to exist.”

At 86 years old, Khamenei must decide how to respond. He can escalate military actions against Israel, risking further damage, or choose a diplomatic route that might put his nuclear ambitions at risk. Recently, he vowed that “the Iranian nation is not one to surrender,” and cautioned that U.S. involvement would lead to “irreparable damage.”

Khamenei’s Rise to Power

Khamenei took the reins of Iran in 1989, succeeding Ayatollah Khomeini. Initially, many doubted his authority. Unlike Khomeini, he lacked significant religious credentials and charisma. Over time, though, Khamenei solidified his power and ruled longer than his predecessor.

He reinforced a system dominated by clerics, which helped him become a key authority under Islamic law. Khamenei also empowered the Revolutionary Guard, turning it into a crucial military and political force. This group manages Iran’s ballistic missile program and oversees a network of pro-Iran proxies across the region, enhancing Iran’s influence from Yemen to Lebanon.

Navigating Domestic Challenges

Khamenei has faced numerous threats to his power. The reform movement in the early 2000s aimed to give elected officials more authority, something Khamenei’s hardliners strongly opposed. By consolidating support from the religious establishment, he effectively stifled reform efforts and barred reformist candidates from elections.

Protests have erupted multiple times since, notably after the disputed 2009 election and again in recent years due to economic hardship and social unrest sparked by events like the death of Mahsa Amini. These protests highlighted the deep discontent with his regime, but Khamenei’s security forces have quelled them through force, leading to numerous casualties and arrests.

Transforming Iran’s Regional Role

When Khamenei came to power, Iran was recovering from the devastating war with Iraq. Over the decades, he transformed Iran into a significant regional player. The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 provided a prime opportunity for Iran to gain influence with Shiite allies.

This led to the formation of the "Axis of Resistance," which included groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. By 2015, Iran’s influence reached its peak, placing it in close proximity to Israel. However, recent events have shifted the balance.

Recent Developments

The recent attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, was met with severe Israeli retaliation, targeting not just Hamas but also Iranian interests. In a significant turn, Israel shifted its focus to dismantling Iranian-aligned forces. This has led to a critical weakening of groups like Hezbollah.

Emerging from this, Iran’s influence in the region is dwindling, signifying a remarkable change from its previous position. A government now hostile to Iran rules in Syria, further complicating Khamenei’s ambitions.

As Khamenei grapples with these challenges, the future of Iran and its leadership is uncertain, reflecting the ever-evolving landscape of the Middle East.

For further insights into the geopolitical dynamics in the region, you can explore reports from Reuters on recent developments.

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