CAIRO (AP) — Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recently faced intense protests, leading to one of the bloodiest crackdowns in his nearly four-decade rule.
With U.S. military ships nearby, Khamenei is on edge. He has warned that any U.S. attack could lead to a widespread regional war. In a surprising turn, he has also opened the door to negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, despite saying just recently that he would not engage in talks with the U.S.
The protests reflect deep-seated anger among Iranians, fueled by years of economic challenges and corruption. As the value of the rial plummeted, chants of “Death to Khamenei!” echoed in the streets during the protests, showcasing the shift from economic dissatisfaction to a broader rejection of clerical rule.
The Iranian leadership sees these issues as a significant threat. The country’s nuclear and military capabilities have suffered due to last summer’s conflict with Israel, and its influence through regional groups like Hamas and Hezbollah has weakened over time.
Khamenei’s recent crackdown was severe: thousands were killed, tens of thousands were arrested, and internet access was cut, isolating many from the outside world. This violent response highlights Khamenei’s grip on power, as he continues to squash dissent through force.
Khamenei rose to power in 1989 amidst doubts about his leadership compared to Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. Nevertheless, he has managed to entrench a clerical system that places religious leaders at the pinnacle of political authority. His control extends to a powerful paramilitary group, the Revolutionary Guard, which plays a crucial role in both military affairs and the economy.
Despite facing various waves of protests over the years, Khamenei has consistently managed to suppress movements advocating for reform. The reformist push met resistance, leading to significant protests in 2009, 2017, 2019, and more recently in 2022, each met with harsh responses from security forces.
The most recent protests erupted in late December, largely driven by economic despair, with security forces responding with unprecedented violence. Activists have reported over 6,700 fatalities, the highest recorded toll yet, while the government claims a much lower figure.
Khamenei, now more defensive, has begun nuclear talks with the U.S. in an attempt to defuse tensions. However, both sides remain far apart on key issues, such as halting nuclear enrichment. Some Iranians hope that military action from the U.S. could help facilitate change, but many others are cautious about foreign intervention, fearing it could lead to even more instability.
As Khamenei ages, questions arise about his succession. A panel of clerics is meant to choose his successor, but the Revolutionary Guard’s growing influence complicates this process. The removal of Khamenei could lead to internal power struggles, raising concerns about future stability in a nation rich in resources yet rife with division.
For ongoing updates and insights into this evolving situation, you can refer to detailed analyses from sources like Reuters or Al Jazeera.
